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Predicting the NFC North: The Green Bay Packers Will Be Elite in 2010

Posted on 02 September 2010 by NFLShare

My NFL predictions continue today with the NFC North, the second of my predictions today (did AFC East earlier). So far the AFC East, AFC North, AFC West, NFC East, and NFC West have been completed.

The NFC North has been getting more love in recent months. The Green Bay Packers are becoming elite in many people’s eyes, and believed to be a threat to the Vikings. Brett Favre made another famous return to Minnesota camp last month. The Bears and Lions both look to make strides in 2010, as they look to get to their winning ways.

Who will win the NFC North? Here are my predictions for the division.

 

1. Green Bay Packers—I am on the Packers band wagon, and it starts and ends with Aaron Rodgers. Last year was the first year we saw the potential Rodgers has, as he looks to become elite in 2010.

Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and Jermichael Finley are a great deal of weapons Rodgers has to throw to in the passing game.

The offensive line improved down the stretch in 2009, and drafting Bryan Bulaga in the first round should help clear up that weakness.

The biggest question remaining is on the defensive side. The return of Al Harris is unknown right now, and last year the Packers were torched in the passing game during the postseason. That area will need to show improvement if Green Bay wants to return to the Super Bowl, in the post Favre-era.

Prediction: 12-4

 

2. Minnesota Vikings—My confidence in Brett Favre’s team continues to drop every day. Number four’s age is continuing to be exposed in the first two pre-season games he has played in.

Couple the fact with losing the best receiver on the team in Sidney Rice for at least half the season, and this is a team I see in trouble.

More importantly, the Vikings did not make enough upgrades in the secondary to convince me they can hold any lead during a long period of time.

I believe they’ll squeak into the wild-card spot, but it won’t be pretty, and it may be a pick I regret later down the road.

Prediction: 9-7

 

3. Chicago Bears—2010 is a year where jobs are on the line in Chicago. In the end though, I see them as a .500 team right now.

Jay Cutler may have a better campaign in Mike Martz’s offense, but the turnovers are still going to be an issue. Are the young group of receivers ready to take a big enough of a leap this season and emerge as a No. 1 target? Not to sure about that.

The defense should be healthier this year, but despite the signing of Julius Peppers, this is a unit that is on the decline and not the dominant force of a few years ago.

Prediction: 8-8

 

4. Detroit Lions—The post-Millen era is a bright one if you’re a Detroit Lions fan. Another successful off-season leads to a bright and competitive season for the Lions this year.

Ndamukong Suh has already begun to show how he will be a force in the NFL, demanding double teams from opposing line man.

Defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch provides leadership to this young defensive front, but should also put up solid numbers this year.

On the offensive side, weapons were brought in (Jahvid Best through draft, Tony Scheffler via trade) to comfort second-year starter Matthew Stafford.

I still have questions about the offensive line, and the brutal secondary. But another key off season and a .500 record isn’t out of the question for next year.

Prediction: 5-11

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Packers Team Report (Yahoo! Sports)

Posted on 02 September 2010 by NFLShare

The Packers will carry an air of supreme confidence into the season.

Open talk and even printed T-shirts compliments of linebacker Nick Barnett that expressed the Super Bowl aspirations harbored by the team at the start of training camp in late July was backed up by what was accomplished on the field the ensuing five weeks.

The Aaron Rodgers-led offense took center stage, running the defenses of the Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts ragged in the first three preseason games. With yards through the air and points aplenty for the starting group, plenty of people have taken notice, including those of an influential ilk.

“He had a really good year last year and has a lot of weapons,” Colts quarterback Peyton Manning said of Rodgers, who threw…

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NFC North: The Biggest Question Marks for Each Team

Posted on 01 September 2010 by NFLShare

So the regular season is just one preseason game away. The rosters will be finalized on Saturday the 5th and each team in the NFC North will have one thing on their mind: winning.

I am going to break down the biggest question mark for each team as well as give a prediction for how they’ll do. 

Hate it or love it, I’m going to do my best at pointing out the main things these four teams will struggle with for the 2010 season. 

Begin Slideshow

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Pre-season finale a chance for Packers QBs (The Canadian Press)

Posted on 01 September 2010 by NFLShare

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Aaron Rodgers knows from experience that it isn't easy to live life as an understudy in the NFL.

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Preseason finale a chance for Packers’ backup QBs (PA SportsTicker)

Posted on 01 September 2010 by NFLShare

By CHRIS JENKINS AP Sports Writer

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You Sunk My Secondary: Green Bay Packers Lose Atari Bigby and Al Harris

Posted on 31 August 2010 by NFLShare

Have you ever heard the saying, “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket?”  Well if you haven’t, take a look at the Green Bay Packers, as they will give you a definition of what it means to get your hopes up, only to be knocked back a peg by some disappointing news.

Coming off a 2009 season that saw the Green Bay Packers reach dizzying new heights under defensive genius Dom Capers, the green and gold now find themselves in quite a jam as the team found out today that both Atari Bigby and Al Harris have been put on an indefinite PUP list, that could extend for the opening six weeks of the regular season.

When the news first broke that both defensive stars would miss a considerable amount of action this season, Lambeau Field was the first to feel the hit.  Not only were the Packers highly successful in converting to the 3-4 scheme last season, they were also privileged to have an outstanding Atari Bigby on their side, as he finished the season with a complimentary four interceptions and 49 tackles.

On the other hand, the Packers did see some action for cornerback Al Harris, although his 2009 campaign was cut short when went down early in the season with a knee injury, that would keep him unfit and unhealthy for the remainder of the schedule.

Prior to this whole unfortunate mess, the Packers were hopeful.  Many had gone ahead and assumed that Al Harris would never return to Green Bay, and in fact labeled him under the category of “One and done” as footage of his knee rehabilitation didn’t look all that promising.

But of course, this was the fan perspective, and when it came to the Packers themselves, the entire team felt that Al Harris was on the right track. If he was lucky enough to be thrown a miracle or two, he would be able to play in the Packers season opener against the Philadelphia Eagles in two weeks time.

Unfortunately for all of us though, this very exciting thought never developed into reality, and, to add salt to an already open wound, Green Bay now find themselves down a safety, as Atari Bigby’s preseason left ankle surgery has him sidelined for the first six weeks of the regular season.

Now, as tough and as upsetting as this may all seem, how does it really affect the Packers in the long run?

Well, if we dig deep and really scratch the surface, the answer that can be discovered is that it doesn’t really hurt the Packers all that much. 

If we look at it simply, the Packers survived quite well without Al Harris last season.  Sure the team took a while to move away from the key loss, but when tough opponents popped up on the schedule, the team defense didn’t exactly crumble after the loss of just one key player.

Of course, this time the circumstances are a little different with Atari Bigby being away, but realistically he is only out for six weeks, and barring any further devastating news, will be back for a considerable amount of the season.

The other source of good news here is that Al Harris actually will return.  His knee was questionable for a period of time, and as long as six weeks truly is, it is great news to hear that he will be returning fit and healthy.

Finally, the replacements for these two veteran players are quite suitable.  Green Bay practically stole Morgan Burnett from Georgia Tech earlier this April in the 2010 NFL Draft, and even though Ted Thompson hasn’t always looked all that intelligent, this draft pick now makes him look extremely wise.

As for Al Harris’ replacement, Packer fans will be hoping that it isn’t Jarret Bush, as memories of Ben Roethlisberger’s brilliance last year are still a sore point for any Packer fan.

No, the replacement for Al Harris should hopefully be Tramon Williams, who finished the 2009 season with four interceptions to his name.

So with all of this said, I think you can agree that it isn’t panic stations in Green Bay just yet.

Still, one remaining issue that does come from these circumstances is the fact that the team is now down yet another team leader.  Last season saw Charles Woodson and Atari Bigby play off of each other, and although the Packer defense is still rather strong, the absence of a key presence like Atari Bigby in the opening stages of the season could affect Green Bay a little.

Yet, as concerning as this may be, I go back to my earlier point that this loss is only for six weeks, and in that time the Packers do have easier opponents in the likes of Washington, Detroit, and Buffalo.

Packer fans and NFL fans in general, take it easy. 

I know a loss this big is tough to swallow, but if any team can come back defensively, it’s the Green Bay Packers.  Let’s not forget that this was the No. 2 defense last season, and with Charles Woodson, Nick Collins, and Clay Matthews still proving to be the ultimate bruisers, this may not be an over dramatized issue.

Fortunately for the Packers, this saga is occurring at the beginning of the season, rather than later on when the likes of Minnesota, New England, and New York start to appear on the schedule.

The Packers have always been known for their tough defense, and while they are no 1980’s Chicago Bears, they still do a pretty good job when the going gets tough.  Hopefully we see both Al Harris and Atari Bigby back strong in Week Six or Seven, and, while we’re waiting, lets see if the Packers can cope without two of their key players.

After all, it takes a true contender to come back against the odds, and while the Packers are constantly in the thick of Super Bowl talk, what better way to prove to everyone that they are the real deal then by coping under pressure?  If this isn’t a minor setback, then I don’t know what is.

This isn’t anything the Packers can’t handle.

 

Ryan Cook is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He is also an NFL columnist for Real Sports Net and a Green Bay Packers writer for Fan Huddle and PackerChatters. Ryan is also a contributing writer for Detroit Lions Talk, Gack Sports and Generation Y Sports.  Don’t forget to follow him on Twitter.

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What Exactly Is A Third-Down Back? An Analysis of Brandon Jackson

Posted on 31 August 2010 by NFLShare

During the NFL draft, one of the players I secretly wished the Packers would select was Dexter McCluster from Ole Miss. 

Obviously, the Packers were desperate for an offensive tackle and could use some more help in the secondary. It was also unlikely that he was the best player available on the Packers board with Koa Misi and Sergio Kindle still available in the second round, but a “luxury” pick such as a McCluster would have been a lot of fun to watch. 

But something funny struck me after McCluster was picked by the Chiefs in the second round with the 36th pick overall; what exactly is a third down back?

Now before people start stating the obvious, let me ask you this from a scheme standpoint: Why ask a player who excels at running the football to be a supporting player in the passing game? 

In the case of Dexter McCluster, who is being considered the “prototypical” modern day 3rd down back, why draft a player who lacks the size of a running back and is predicted by many teams to be unable to withstand the impacts that NFL running backs sustain (subsequently, McCluster I believe is being moved to wide receiver). 

Going more specifically towards the Packers, why is Brandon Jackson a 3rd down running back, and is he any good at it? (The Packers seem to think so and have praised him as a 3rd down back on multiple occasions).  In this article, I hope to analyze the typical assignments of a 3rd down back and whether Brandon Jackson best fits that role.

Roles:

•    Short Yardage Back: While not really part of the modern day responsibility of a third down back, but back when teams were more run oriented, teams often had bigger running backs run between the tackles in order to get a couple yards for the touchdown or the 1st down.  Jerome Bettis near the end of his career could be considered the prototypical “old school” third down back. He famously rushed 5 times for 1 yard (or .2 ypc), for 3 touchdowns and a total of 18 points in one game.

   o    Analysis: Most modern third down backs are ill fit to run between the tackles since they lack the strength or size of a bigger back, especially on short yardage situations, where the defense has stacked the box and is cheating the run.

   o    Jackson Analysis: Brandon Jackson was rarely asked to be a short yardage back; for one, Ryan Grant’s running style is very favorable in short yardage situations and John Kuhn fills the role of the “bigger back”.  The only real occasion that Jackson had an opportunity to be a short yardage back last year was during the Seattle game, where he hid behind the offensive lineman and subbed in as a fullback; obviously that’s something of a trick play and I doubt the Packers would have employed it if the game was close.

   o    Conclusion: The best player for short yardage situations is probably the fullback, in the Packers case John Kuhn.

 

•    Safety valve receiver: 3rd down backs are often asked to run short patterns and sit in soft coverages.  These kinds of routes are often very deceiving since running backs will typically chip block a defender before starting their route, so the defenses will have to guess whether a running back is staying behind to block or is going out into a route.

   o    Analysis: The safety valve role has become so important for third down backs that the most coveted 3rd down running backs are wide receiver/running back hybrid players such as San Diego’s Darren Sproles, and it’s probably the reason why Dexter McCluster was drafted as high as he was.  But aside from a few elite pass catching running backs, most running backs display at best average hands; and this makes sense since their main focus is to run the ball, with catching the ball as a secondary skill.  Yes, catching the ball is important for a running back, but a running back that couldn’t run the ball but could catch wouldn’t last too long in the league.

   o    Jackson Analysis: While Jackson has seen action as a safety valve receiver, it’s obvious that the Packers used him only as a last resort.  For example Jackson had 21 receptions this year for 187 yards in 2009; compare that to Ryan Grant who had 25 receptions for 197 yards. But typically he is not in on third downs and isn’t usually a receiving option or well known for his hands.  Furthermore, the Packers’ offense downplays the role of a third down receiver; being a rhythm west-coast offense, the Packers often use quick slants and other quick passes to avoid the pass rush, so many routes run by wide receivers and tight ends could be considered “safety valve routes”.  Finally, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and Jermicheal Finely are all good at catching balls in the middle of the field in traffic, so a pure safety valve is not as important.

 

 
   o    Conclusion: The best player for a safety valve receiver is probably a tight end or a slot receiver. In the Packers case Donald Driver or Jermicheal Finely; both of these positions often require catching passes in the middle of the field in lots of traffic.  These players also usually taller so are easier targets and have better pass catching ability.

 

•    Pass Blocker: Third down backs are often asked to be the last line of defense against the pass rush; often they will either help the offensive lineman block or they will block defensive players who have either gotten free or weren’t accounted for in the offensive line protection scheme.

   o    Analysis: While often the bread and butter responsibility of a third down running back (especially for the Packers), running backs don’t make the greatest blockers; people remember Brandon Chillar’s sack of Jay Cutler in week one not because of the quarterback sack, but because of him leaping over 3rd down running back Garrett Wolfe (who is only 5’7”).  Furthermore, running backs typically lack the size and the strength to do anything but slow down defensive tackles and ends. 

   o    Jackson Analysis: Apparently the best trait of Brandon Jackson is his pass blocking ability, but considering the amount of sacks Aaron Rodgers took last year, there is still something left to be desired.  Obviously, most of those sacks weren’t Jackson’s fault, shoddy line play and Rodgers holding the ball had more to do with it. But when Rodgers was getting sacked so often in every game, the Packers were forced to bring back Mark Tauscher mid-season.

 

   o    Conclusion: Obviously the best player to pass block would be a offensive lineman, such as a more agile tackle, but I think a tight end would also fare quite well, one of their prime responsibilities is inline blocking and a tight end, such as Donald Lee in the Packers’ case probably has an easier time blocking against defensive tackles as he’s half a foot taller and heavier than Jackson by 30 pounds.

 

•    “Surprise” running back: Sometimes offenses try to catch defenses cheating on obvious passing plays by running the ball, usually on a running back delay play. For instance, if its third and long and the defense is playing in a nickel or dime package, it may make sense to run the ball considering there are so few players in the box.

   o    Analysis: A fairly unusual play call on 3rd and long, while the running back will typically gain a couple of yards, usually the defense will stop them before they reach the first down.  On third downs, defenses often play a contain scheme that allows the offense to gain yards, but not enough yardage to get the first down (“bend but not break” defense).  Most teams typically will use this play a couple of times a year, especially if getting into range for a field goal is deemed an importance.

   o    Jackson Analysis: Brandon Jackson has taken a couple of running back delay plays in recent memory, but the Packers have such a talented receiving corps that usually the Packers will throw the ball, even when the defense knows that its going to be a pass.  Furthermore, considering the running back corps of the Packers, there isn’t one player who stands out as being the best “delay” running back, I believe Ryan Grant would do just as good of a job as Jackson in this regard

   o    Conclusion: The best players for the “surprise” play are running backs, with speed/shifty running backs typically do better in this role since they can take advantage of the confusion early on and running through tackles is not that important since the line is not stacked.  However this is a very rarely used play in the NFL and probably even more rare for the Packers so I doubt many teams put much emphasis on having a back that can perform this role.

 

 

So in conclusion, a 3rd down running back really only has an advantage over other players schematically in regards to the “surprise” run play, which is basically a trick play. In my opinion the most important role for a 3rd down back is to pass protect so a tight end, in particular a blocking tight end makes the most sense to me. 

In many ways the Packers agree, one of the most common pre-snap adjustments you will see with the Packers run is the tight end motion; usually it’s just a move to see if the defense tips its hand, but often times if the Packers are about to run or they feel like they need extra pass protection, you will see the inline tight end motion from one side of the offensive line to the other and then come back and station himself roughly behind the guard in preparation of either pass blocking or working as a safety valve receiver. 

Naturally, Brandon Jackson isn’t going to be complaining, he is obviously behind Ryan Grant and any opportunity he gets to be on the field is a plus, but in terms of schematics and the strengths of player positions it seems to make more sense to have tight end such as Donald Lee or Tom Crabtree line up as the third down back.

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Packers place DBs Harris, Bibgy on PUP list (SportingNews.com)

Posted on 31 August 2010 by NFLShare

The Green Bay Packers on Tuesday placed cornerback Al Harris and safety Atari Bigby on the physically unable to perform list. Each will miss the team’s first six games. Harris is recovering from the knee surgery late last season. Bigby had ankle surgery during training camp. Tramon Williams will start in Harris' place. Rookie Morgan Burnett is expected to fill in for Bigby. "Defensively, we feel good about what we were able to put in and tailor to our players," coach Mike McCarthy told USA Today.

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2010 Season Preview: Are The Green Bay Packers Flaws Too Big To Overcome?

Posted on 31 August 2010 by NFLShare

Maybe it’s my pessimistic nature as a sports fan, but I tend to spend a lot more time thinking about the weakness’ of my favorite teams rather than their strengths. And although the Packers strengths out weigh their weakness’ by a large margin, I can’t help but think some of their flaws could lead to their ultimate demise.
 
With less than two weeks before the season opener, there is still much to be decided on the Packers roster, mostly on the defensive side of the ball and on special teams. Who will return punts and kicks? Who will be the nickel cornerback? Who will lineup at outside linebacker opposite of Clay Matthews?
 
At this point it looks like all of those questions, which were the same questions that most Packer fans had at the end of last year still have not been answered.
 
Jason Chery will get the opportunity to return all kicks and punts in the final preseason game to determine whether or not he has the ability to be a return man in the NFL and claim the job as the Packers fifth receiver. Chery earned this opportunity after returning a kick 75 yards for a touchdown in the Packers preseason victory over the Colts.
 
If Chery is not able to handle the return duties and is ultimately cut, kick returns will most likely be handled once again by Jordy Nelson who has been very pedestrian as a returner. Punt return duties could be taken care of by Will Blackmon if he is healthy, but Blackmon’s knee, which he injured last season, continues to be a problem.
 
It was announced today that cornerback Al Harris will start the season on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list, which means he will be out until at least week 7. With Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson as the starting corners, Sam Shields, the rookie free agent out of Miami could be the nickel corner.
 
Shields only played one season in college at corner, but he has outplayed both Pat Lee and Brandon Underwood this preseason. I don’t know if this says more about the talent of Shields or more about how disappointing both Underwood and Lee have been so far.
 
Also of major concern to the Packers secondary is the loss of safety Atari Bigby, who like Al Harris will start the season on the PUP list, leaving the the Packers extremely thin at the safety position.
 
Another undrafted rookie free agent who looks like he might find a spot on the roster is outside linebacker Frank Zombo.  Zombo has been the most consistent pass rushing linebacker so far, but it remains to be seen if he will be able to overtake Brad Jones and Brady Poppinga for the starting linebacker spot opposite Clay Matthews, who has missed most of the preseason due to injury.

Ted Thompson has a philosophy of drafting the “best player available” rather than drafting for need, but the question must be asked, with the possibility that four of their seven draft picks may not contribute anything this year, would they of been better off using later round picks to improve themselves this year rather than drafting based on potential?
 
The Packers could still make some changes before the season starts. Ted Thompson has been known to make moves at the end of camp and may try to bolster the roster be trading either offensive lineman Jason Spitz or possibly tight end Donald Lee who may have some trade value to a team looking for a veteran tight end.
 
The Packers very well could be this years New Orleans Saints—A team with an offense so explosive that the defense just needs to be competent and force some turnovers to get to the Super Bowl, or they could be like… well the 09 Packers—A team with an explosive offense, but that defensively can’t stop top tier passing games.

 

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Al Harris, Atari Bigby to open season on PUP list (The National Football Post)

Posted on 31 August 2010 by NFLShare

The Green Bay Packers got down to the 75-man limit today by announcing that three players will remain on the…

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