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Oh, How the NFL’s Mighty Has Fallen

Posted on 26 December 2009 by NFLShare

What a difference a year makes in the NFL.

Last December, the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers—the NFC’s two top teams in 2008—met on a Sunday night with the No. 1 overall seed on the line. But when the two teams battle on Sunday afternoon, in the Giants‘ regular season finale at the Meadowlands, only the home team has a playoff spot in sight.

The 8-6 Giants are a game behind Dallas in the wild card race and have the season series in their pocket after a pair of wins over the Cowboys.

Yet it was only last season when New York was the conference’s top seed with home field advantage throughout the playoffs and looked primed to defend its Super Bowl title. Then, the Plaxico Burress fiasco left Eli Manning and the Giants offense without a big target, and they were ousted quickly by Philadelphia in the divisional round.

On the other side, the Panthers are 6-8 and only a shadow of their 12-4 selves from a year ago when they hosted a divisional playoff game against Arizona and were embarrassed in the 20-point defeat, caused by seven turnovers. And since Jake Delhomme’s destruction in January, Carolina has suffered a giant fall in the NFC with a mark below .500—nowhere near the division’s elite in New Orleans.

The Panthers’ fall from grace marks an emerging trend in the NFL that’s seen a handful of top teams take a plunge in the standings over the course of one season, stemming largely from parity. Teams that reach great heights suddenly play a tougher schedule the next season, while division and conference rivals can take a giant leap forward, culminating in a disappointing result, which four teams in particular have suffered in 2009.

Amazingly, the top seeds that earned first-round byes a year ago—the Giants, Panthers, Titans, and Steelers—have stumbled through their schedules and could all miss the playoffs by season’s end on January 3. Each of the four disappointments haven’t played the same kind of smash-mouth football that led each team to best in their respective conferences.

The fact that three of the four teams—aside from Pittsburgh who won the Super Bowl—were eliminated at home in the divisional playoffs perhaps foreshadowed struggles this season.

Clearly, New York has been the best of the pack to this point in the season with a shot at the playoffs still. But a depleted secondary and lack of a pass rush on defense largely resulted in a horrendous four-game losing streak that quickly erased a 5-0 start.

Last year, the G-Men started 11-1 and secured the first overall seed with that victory over Carolina on Sunday Night Football . But they have since fallen from the top ranks of the NFC—as have the Panthers.

In the AFC, Tennessee was the best team in football last fall with a 10-0 start to the season before Brett Favre and the Jets knocked them from the undefeated ranks. The Titans, though, dominated the Steelers 31-14 at home in the AFC’s battle for first in late December—fittingly on the same Sunday New York beat out Carolina.

The monstrous win over Pittsburgh, and the subsequent stomping of the Terrible Towel by linebacker Keith Bullock, gave Tennessee home field advantage. However, it wasn’t much of an advantage at all in the playoffs, as they were narrowly beaten 13-10 by a red-hot Baltimore team, which earned a trip to Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship game.

In 2009 however, it was a disastrous start for the Titans, who lost their first six games of the year. And despite winning the next seven of eight with Vince Young under center, they won’t be back in the postseason after Friday’s blowout loss to San Diego, going from 13 wins to a .500 record in the span of a season.

For their part the Steelers, the only top team out of the bunch to win a home playoff game, have suffered through an injury-riddled season with the loss of safety Troy Polamalu (knee) on defense and the absence of Ben Roethlisberger (concussion) for a game-plus.

A 12-4 record, which earned Pittsburgh the No. 2 seed in the AFC and paved its Super Bowl run, has been followed by a major collapse in the second half of 2009.

A five-game losing streak, including embarrassing defeats against the Chiefs and Raiders, knocked the defending champs from a first-place tie in the AFC North at 6-2 to out of the playoffs, which now would be a Christmas miracle in the final two weeks of the regular season. Despite the comeback victory over Green Bay, two wins are in order against the Ravens and Dolphins for Pittsburgh even to have a shot.

So, if the playoffs started today, all four top seeds from 2008 (which combined for 37 wins) would be watching the postseason from their living rooms. Tennessee and Carolina have already been eliminated from contention, while Pittsburgh and New York are hanging by a thread in the AFC and NFC wild card races, respectively.

It just points to the amount of parity in the NFL. Aside from the league’s bottom feeders, it can be a quite the sudden plunge from one season to the next for any elite team. 

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Ravens Vs. Steelers Game To Be a Shoot Out? Looking That Way

Posted on 26 December 2009 by NFLShare

Three times during the 2008 NFL season, the Steelers and Ravens locked up for battle. The three matches were the normal, Steelers-Ravens games.

These were brutal, hard hitting affairs where players were often injured. A commentator said during the AFC Championship Game that these two teams were the hardest hitting teams in the NFL.

If that is what you are looking for this weekend, you better watch another game.

The Steelers and Ravens are both banged up on the defensive side of the ball. The two best safeties to probably play the game, Troy Polamalu for the Steelers (Out-Knee) and Ed Reed for the Ravens (Doubtful – Neck) will not be playing. This changes the complexity of both teams dramatically.

The Steelers are also without Aaron Smith, who anchors the defensive line. Though Ziggy Hood is coming along, and will one day be able to replace Smith, he is not there yet.

The Steelers defensive woes are not attributed to injury, but to the struggles of their offense.

Last year’s version of the Steelers were ranked number one overall, number one against the run, and number two against the pass. With the Steelers’ run oriented attack on offense, their defense was fresh and well rested.

With the Steelers converting to a pass-first offense this season, they are forcing the defense to be on the field more than they have been in the past. This is giving opposing offenses more opportunities, and they are taking advantage of them.

For the Ravens, Tavaris Gooden did not practice this week, so he is also not expected to play. The Ravens linebackers are not the area where they should be concerned. However, their secondary is one of the most depleted in the NFL right now. Lardarius Webb, Fabian Washington, Haruki Nakamura and Samari Rolle are all on Injured Reserve (Rolle is on the PUP list, but is still not able to play).

With Ed Reed unable to play, that makes FIVE defensive backs that will not be in the game for Baltimore. Most teams don’t carry many more than that when the season starts.

Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 500 yards against the Green Bay Packers last week, who also had been diminished by injury, but nowhere near as bad as the Ravens are.

Offensively, The Ravens seem to be following the path of the Steelers. With second year pro Joe Flacco, they already have their version of Big Ben Roethlisberger. Like Roethlisberger, Flacco has size, arm strength and mobility. 

Everyone will know this offseason if the Ravens are seriously converting to a pass-first team if they go out and improve their receivers through free agency and the draft. This is not to knock Derek Mason, who is a great receiver but is getting older and slowing down.

The Steelers face a similar issue with an aging Hines Ward, but with the Steelers having Santonio Holmes, and rookie Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh has the weapons to be the pass-first team.

This should be a great game, but it will not be the normal 17-14 game that these teams are used to.

Pittsburgh wins 35-27.

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Hit the Ground Running: How Clay Matthews Is Making a Case for ROY

Posted on 26 December 2009 by NFLShare

Although a loss was the fate that Green Bay suffered this week at the hands of Pittsburgh, Clay Matthews flew in from Pennsylvania a very happy man.  Oh, and believe me, his arms weren’t very tired.

From the East Coast to the North, former USC outside linebacker Clay Matthews has quickly made an impression on not only the hardcore fans in Green Bay, but also on analysts and sports writers alike.  Coming off a fantastic week against the Steelers, where he continually rushed QB Ben Roethlisberger, Matthews left Heinz Field with a smile on his face as he recorded seven tackles and two sacks in the game.

Prior to the Pittsburgh game, Matthews wasn’t exactly struggling to post big numbers either.  The most memorable game that I as a Packer fan can think of in relation to Matthews would be the Week Six onslaught of the Detroit Lions.  Matthews’ numbers once again proved impressive, as he sacked QB Daunte Culpepper twice and made three tackles in an impressive 26-0 win.

Of course, many non-Packer fans may be thinking, “That’s only the Detroit Lions, what does that prove?”  Allow me to continue. In the meaningful Monday Night Football game against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 13, Matthews quickly left an impression, or rather a dent in not only Joe Flacco but the entire Ravens offense. 

Matthews numbers for the night were once again two sacks and six tackles along with a forced fumble on route to a Packers 27-14 win.

History wise, Clay matches up also. Before the Soldier Field matchup on Dec. 13 between the Packers and Bears, Matthews had tied former Packer legends Tim Harris and Vonnie Holiday for the most sacks in a rookie season.  The record was soon overcome though, as the two sacks Clay had recorded in Pittsburgh were enough to give him the edge, and a place in the history books.

Clay has made a name for himself.  Coached by one of the most passionate players to ever play the game, Kevin Greene, Matthews shows as much enthusiasm on the field as he does off.  Always wanting to better himself and his team, Clay is already closely following the footsteps of his father and his grandfather and shows the characteristics that define a future star.

For what started out as a dismal year for the Packers and their fans, has already turned into a promising one.  From 6-10 last season to a likely wild-card berth this year, things have come a long way.  Numerous players are having outstanding seasons, and Clay Matthews is one of the top contributors on the Packers starting roster.

Green Bay Packers CB Charles Woodson is already leading the race for Defensive Player of the Year and is more than likely a shoe in to take the honours home at this stage.  Maybe this season another Packer will be credited for his hard work.  Clay Matthews.  He damn sure deserves it.

 

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I-76 Rivalry: Which Offense Looks Better Going into the Future?

Posted on 25 December 2009 by NFLShare

As a youth, both of my parents were in the military, and as a result, I moved around a lot. With all of the moving that my family did, it was rare to settle down in one place; however, we managed to live at Fort Riley, KS for six or seven years.

It was there that I first became interested in football as Super Bowl XXX was to air on Jan. 28, 1996. Two days prior to this game, my third-grade teacher asked our classroom who we felt would win. Twenty-eight of the students proclaimed the Cowboys; I was alone in picking the Steelers.

Why exactly did I pick the Steelers? Well, it was for an interesting reason. It was because my family originally hailed from Philadelphia. However, in my youth, having always moved around, I was unaware of the difference between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

Despite the fact that the Steelers lost, I remained an adamant fan of the team because I was always under the impression that they were the Philadelphia Steelers. It was not until I was old enough to actually understand geography outside of my current location, as well as the game of football in depth, that I realized I had made the “wrong” choice. However, I never relinquished being a Steelers fan and that choice has always paid off.

However, despite the fact that I will remain a Steelers fan until I die, the Eagles will always hold a spot in my heart, given that 70 percent of my family is from Philadelphia and the love of my life—raised in Lancaster County, PA—is a die-hard Eagles fan.

Since returning to Philadelphia after my mother’s retirement from the Army, I have been forced to watch every Eagles game by local Fox affiliate Fox 29. So I found myself being a closet, though not die-hard, Eagles fan.

As someone who has viewed both sides of the spectrum from both a biased and unbiased perspective, I am well aware of the way both fans in this rare rivalry feel. One would be lying if they said that there is not cross-state hatred between the fans of both teams.

One only needs to go to a college or university in Pennsylvania on a fall weekend to see the arguments that occur between the fans of both teams as to who is the better team.

It would be easy for me as a Steelers fan to allude to the six Super Bowl championships to argue superiority just as it would be easy for an Eagles fan to allude to their 10-4 record in comparison to the Steelers 7-7 record to argue their team’s superiority.

Throughout the decade the two teams have been marked by their defenses and thus there have been numerous comparisons to which team has had the better defense(s) this decade.

With both teams’ defenses not being anything to write home about this season, it leads one to realize that the future of these two teams is very possibly in the hands of both of their offenses. It is here where the inspiration for this article comes. Which team’s offense—based on the skill position players—looks more poised for greatness in the future?

The Steelers feature the older and more experienced unit with Ben Roethlisberger (27), Santonio Holmes (25), Heath Miller (27), Mike Wallace (23) and Rashard Mendenhall (22).

Meanwhile, the Eagles feature the younger unit, but it has the Eagles’ fans raving for the first time in years about their offense. Kevin Kolb (25) will be taking the reins in a few years at quarterback, where as DeSean Jackson (23), Jeremy Maclin (21), and Brent Celek (25) will be the pass catchers in Philadelphia.

Finally, former Pittsburgh (University) halfback LeSean “Shady” McCoy (21) will be toting the rock on the ground in the future for the Eagles.

So with all of this young offensive talent in the state of Pennsylvania separated by 300 miles on I-70 that won’t see each other—barring a Super Bowl matchup—for another three years, the question is, which team looks better, offensively, for the future?

 

Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger vs. Kevin Kolb

Honestly, this comparison isn’t really fair, but Philadelphia still currently has its franchise’s best quarterback in Donovan McNabb taking snaps and he will be for an additional two or three years.

That’s unfortunate for Kolb; however, when one sees him play they realize he still needs to be on the bench to develop. In his limited playing time, Kolb has shown a connection with both Jackson and Celek and will throw to them even if covered tightly. Kolb has the skillset and teammates to be good.

Unfortunately for Kolb, however, is that his opposition is great. Ben Roethlisberger is only 27, yet he has already appeared in two Super Bowls and was the catalyst on the final drive in order to win the latter of the two.

Roethlisberger has taken the Steelers’ offense on his back twice in his career; in 2007 with 32 touchdown passes due to the rushing attacks red zone ineptitude and this season due to a combination of factors. He is a guy capable of going off for 30+ touchdowns and/or a 4,000 yard season and is arguably the most clutch quarterback in the league.

For the aforementioned reasons, I have to easily go with Ben Roethlisberger as my choice here.

 

Halfback: Rashard Mendenhall vs. LeSean McCoy

In the mind of many Pittsburgh Steelers fans, the drafting of Rashard Mendenhall was immediately thought of as a mistake. Willie Parker may have broken his leg, but he was coming off a season in which he was top five in every measurable halfback statistic. Then Mendenhall broke his shoulder in his first start as a rookie and these thoughts were almost confirmed.

However, luckily for Steeler Nation Mendenhall has since rebounded and has averaged over five yards per carry for most of the season and should amass an 1,000-yard season this season. Mendenhall, however, need a vast reality check in order to see success as he had limited or no playing time for the first three games of the year.

Unfortunately for LeSean McCoy, he was stuck behind an All-Pro entering the season and unfortunately—but I guess fortunate for him—Brian Westbrook was subject to two concussions, the worst injury of his career. Already on the wrong side of 30 for a halfback, Westbrook might not return to Philadelphia next season and most definitely will not be the starter or the 2010-11 NFL season.

McCoy will hold the reins from now on.  He has only started four games at the time of this article, but he has 870 yards from scrimmage on 185 touches. He definitely has the skillset to become the new Brian Westbrook of the league and with Andy Reid receiving a contract extension I am pretty sure he will be.

While Mendenhall is more proven at this point—based on virtue of being in the league one more year and producing pretty well this year—I believe McCoy has a better skillset than Mendenhall as well as a coach who knows how to utilize that skillset better by utilizing McCoy as a pass catcher. So this point goes to LeSean McCoy

 

Flanker: Santonio Holmes vs. Jeremy Maclin

Santonio Holmes was the first receiver taken in the 2006 NFL draft, which just four years later has already proven to be incredibly deep with Holmes, Marshall, Colston, and Jennings. Holmes showed immense signs of talent from day one.

Despite only starting four games as a rookie, he went off for 800 yards. As a second-year player, Holmes was the league’s best deep threat posting 8 touchdowns and 942 yards in only 13 games.

He has since gone on to become a 1,000-yard receiver and a Super Bowl MVP and has become the focus point of the Steelers offense as numerous teams have said they key on Holmes when playing against the Steelers.

While DeSean Jackson is currently the flanker for the Eagles, it is my belief that Jackson does not have the skillset to be a truly elite flanker in the NFL because he has trouble going over the middle or making catches in traffic.

Meanwhile, in limited time this year, Maclin has excelled at doing both of those things and has shown that he can be a deep threat as well. For these reasons I feel Maclin will become the Birds’ flanker and a pretty good one at that. Maclin has good hands, runs great route and is an excellent down the field blocker. All things you would want from a flanker.

Unfortunately for Jeremy Maclin, Santonio Holmes is slowly etching his name into the elite category of receivers based on virtue of his 2007 and 2009 seasons. It’s not fair, since Maclin is merely a rookie, but maybe that will change.

 

Split End: Mike Wallace vs. DeSean Jackson

Though Santonio Holmes is currently the Steelers’ split end and Mike Wallace is in the slot, Wallace has clearly established himself as the Steelers future split end. He posses all the speed in the world and established himself as an excellent deep threat in just his first year.

And that game-winning reception that he made against the Packers? Wow! He has also continued the established tradition of being a good blocker necessary to be a Steelers receiver.

While Jackson is currently the Flanker in Philadelphia he doesn’t have the  skillset for the position. If this was simply who would be the better pure receiver it would be very close. Who knows who would be better. However, this is about the future of the two teams’ respective skill position players so what they do elsewhere has to be considered.

Jackson is a threat to make a big play every time he touches the ball on a deep route. He also has the ability to take an end-around to the house where as Wallace hasn’t been able to do such a thing yet.

The choice here is DeSean Jackson , who is already a proven 1,000-yard receiver. However, I would like to point out to Eagles fans that special teams touches are not put into consideration here so it is a lot closer than one would think towards the future in my opinion.

I see both being amongst the biggest deep threats in the league, but Jackson capable of being a 1,000-yard receiver due to a pass heavy offense he will be in under Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg .

 

Tight End: Heath Miller vs. Brent Celek

The final position battle is between the two tight ends, both of which could be considered top 10 at the position already in their young careers. Miller has traditionally been a blocking tight end for the run-heavy Steelers; however, in their pass-heavy attack of 2009 Miller has been top 10 in every receiving statistic at the position all while being an elite run blocker at the position.

Miller is one of the best players in the league, period, at making plays for himself after a reception and breaks tackles with relative ease. He also has some of the best hands in the business, only having three drops on the season at this point.

Across the state is Brent Celek. In a comparison between him and division rival Kevin Boss, I stated, “Brent Celek is kind of just there.” Those words still remain true. He’s not the fastest, he’s not the strongest, and he’s not the most sure-handed player…but he just makes plays.

He plays better than he actually is. He simply knows how to get open and make a catch and try to make something happen afterwards. Not to mention he can take a licking as shown in his two games with Kolb when Kolb left him hanging out to dry.

According to Stats LLC’s official drops statistic his hands are suspect as he’s got an insanely high nine drops but I do not believe that as I have not seen nine drops out of him. But as I said…he just gets it done!

My choice here is Heath Miller . Miller is better-rounded and has better hands. However, what sets the two apart is that Heath Miller is one of the better run blocking tight ends in the league where as I’ve seen Celek mauled off the ball a few times and have seen him being more willing than able at pass and run blocking so far in his career.

He has made huge strides since the start of the season but he’s just not in Miller’s league as a blocker and the two are virtually even as receivers with Miller being more sure-handed.

 

So there you have it. Going into the future the Steelers offense looks to be better in my opinion by notion of a 3-2 score. The big difference, however, is that the Steelers have a quarterback with immense Hall of Fame potential and the Eagles have an enigma. The rest of that is all speculation and projection so it can go either way.

Let me know how you feel about this comparison.

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“Can Do” Attitude: Aaron Rodgers Thrives With More Responsibility

Posted on 25 December 2009 by NFLShare

The slobbering over Aaron Rodgers has almost so incessant and pervasive in the sports media, you’d think it was Tony Kornheiser watching Brett Favre. Except of course Aaron isn’t “Just having fun out there.” The key difference between No. 4 and No. 12: Rodgers hasn’t built up nearly two decades worth of media love to earn get out of jail free cards for stupid interceptions, forced throws, and selfish actions.

No, Rodgers is proving himself on the football field, showing why he deserves to counted as an elite-level quarterback and perennial MVP contender.

He is running around, but not like a chicken with his head cut off like Favre used to, hoping he could make something out of nothing. Rodgers has the most rushing yards of any quarterback in the league and that includes Vince Young, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, and quarterbacks whose mobility tend to get more publicity.

In fact, Rodgers has just 34 fewer rushing yards than Reggie Bush, while even sporting a higher yard per carry average than the former USC phenom (who, to be fair has been an unmitigated disaster the past two seasons).

Every week, you hear defensive coordinators saying they want to keep him in the pocket because when he rolls, he is incredibly dangerous. That’s because few quarterbacks in the league possess the kind of accuracy Aaron has, particularly moving to his right.

But give him time in the pocket, and he will eat you alive.

These are things we knew about Aaron Rodgers. We’d seen glimpses in the game against the Cowboys when he was filling in for Favre two years ago. We saw it last year when he had one of the greatest seasons in history for a first-year starter.

What we didn’t see was the comfort in the offense, the leadership in the huddle, or the ability to finish games.

I will be the first to say that the late game issues from last year do not fall solely on the right shoulder of Rodgers. The defense failed to come up with stops on a consistent basis and that really obfuscated the fact that Rodgers was solid late in games.

But good or bad, the quarterback gets more blame than he deserves for losing often more credit than he deserves for winning. If Aaron Rodgers wants to be known for his winning and not his gaudy stats, he needs to start doing more of the former.   

Poor play-calling has handcuffed Rodgers for almost two seasons now, but what we saw in Pittsburgh should give you hope.

Head Coach Mike McCarthy took the reigns off, letting Rodgers do more than just tweak plays. Making adjustments, reading defenses, and getting out of bad plays into good ones is what players like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning elite-level quarterbacks.

It’s what separates young quarterbacks from experienced ones.

Rodgers responded with one his best games in a Packer uniform throwing for 383 yards, three scores and rushing for another. Had the Packer receivers been able to catch the ball, it would have been an even more impressive showing (and the Packers likely would have won the game).

Down 10, the Packers scored 22 points in the fourth, only to have the defense snatch a loss from the jaws of victory. Rodgers engineered key drives when the team had to have them, against a team who had to have the game.

The Packers succumbed to the same bugaboo from last year, unable to get a crucial stop. That is ultimately what will determine when this defense can truly count itself among the elite.

But you can’t blame Aaron Rodgers for that.

He was out of rhythm in the first half, receivers were dropping the ball, and the running game was ineffective. He could have folded or he could have pressed. But he did neither, preferring to stay the course and continue to pump the ball on a rope to his receivers assuming at some point they’d make a play.

Eventually guys like Jermichael Finley stepped up. The offense made enough plays to win the game.

You score 36 on the road in December, you expect to win.

It’s tough to score moral victories when you give away a game that’d have all but assured your entrance to the playoffs, against the defending champs. Aaron Rodgers would never accept a moral victory, and that competitiveness and fire are part of what make him great.

The more he’s asked to do, the more he’s showing he can do.

Against a pulverizing pass-rush, in a harsh environment, playing a team fighting for it’s lives, Aaron Rodgers came up with the plays he needed to have. I mentioned last week “competitive greatness is being at your best when your best is needed.” Aaron Rodgers is slowly showing he can be great.

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Pittsburgh Steelers a Pass-First Team? OK, But Let’s Keep It Real

Posted on 25 December 2009 by NFLShare

So Ben Roethlisberger has recently made the proclamation that “this is not your father’s Steeler offense,” ushering in the idea of a pass-first, aerial offensive juggernaut.  

A lot of long-time fans have a hard time accepting that idea, with fond memories of three decades of smashmouth, run-it-down-their-throats, clock control football.

Some (like me) are puzzled given the emergence of Rashard Mendenhall as an effective runner, even behind an offensive line that has largely been suspect despite flashes of cohesiveness. Many give credit (or blame) to offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, who has made it pretty clear over the past two seasons that he abhors the workmanlike running game and wants to turn the Steelers into the “Greatest Show On (or Above) Turf” featuring 60 minutes of aerobatic stunts.

And in reality, is that such a bad thing?  After all, we have the high-paid franchise quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger, whose weekly exploits inevitably contain some highlight-reel footage consisting of improbable escapes which he astoundingly turns into positive yards and even points, sometimes.

I think what EVERYONE needs to keep in perspective is that while the air attack has certainly made for riveting football games, full of action and excitement, where it hasn’t delivered is in the “W” column.

You can blame a defense that disappears in the fourth quarter for the losses (as well as the many wins that probably shouldn’t have been as close as they were), but here’s the rub; if you know and understand that the defense isn’t going to salt away the game with a double-digit lead for you (and Mike Tomlin admitted just that fact in the defense of his choice to go for the on-sides kick against Green Bay), then you have to adopt an offensive strategy that puts more points on the board.

This air-it-out offense relies too much on slugging it out and keeping games close. Again, part of the problem is that the defense is giving up way too many fourth-quarter points, but that just underscores the need to run up the score in the first three quarters. If the defense can’t preserve a win with two scores in hand, then we need to be leading by three scores late in games.  If they can’t hang onto a three-score lead, then we need four.  See where I’m going here?

I think the problem is that Ben, and possible the offense in general, needs to feel pressure to “get up” and perform well.  When their backs are against the wall, they often come out firing on all cylinders and move the ball more effectively.  

The offense is at its most dangerous when it needs to come from behind.  Where opponents have beat us all season is clock management, leaving little or no time for Ben to manage one of those miraculous come-from-behind victories.

To me, this is the biggest indictment of the pass-happy Arians offense.  Coming out gunning is perfect.  Getting an early lead is good thinking.  Piling on the points with an effective passing game is ideal.  

Passing out of an empty backfield set on third down and less than a yard to go, with a running back who’s averaging close to five yards per carry is not so smart.  Three passes and a punt from deep in our own territory late in the game with a slim lead is borderline suicidal.  Ignoring the run altogether in the second half is just plain dumb.

While the hopes for salvaging this season are slim, rumors of Arians’ imminent departure will hopefully usher in a more sensible offensive philosophy.  A team can still be a pass-first team without abandoning the run completely, and still understand how to use the run to control the clock, preserve a lead, and keep the defense rested and off the field.  

Someone needs to tell Arians (and maybe Tomlin) that you don’t have to run on every play, you don’t have to score only rushing touchdowns, and you don’t have to stop throwing the ball … and point out that so far this pass-heavy offensive philosophy has contributed at least as much to the 7-7 record as any defensive failures.

In more than a few of the Steelers’ losses, running the clock down even a minute or two while still in possession of the lead could have been the difference between a win and a loss.  Instead, the Steelers preferred to stick with the pass-pass-pass game plan, handed the ball back to the opponent with just enough time on the clock and gift-wrapped the game at the same time.

With that, I leave Santa my wishlist for the rest of this season:

* More play-action.

* Ben rolling out more.

* Don’t let us ever go 5-wide on 3rd-and-inches, ever again.

* And please give our cornerbacks the ability to get closer than 10 yards away from receivers before the ball is thrown.

I know that’s a lot to ask for, Santa, but I promise, I’ve been a very good boy.

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QBER/Week 15: Manning Sets Pace, but Race Is Too Close to Call

Posted on 25 December 2009 by NFLShare

(QBER is short for Quarterback Efficiency Rating, a more comprehensive, easily understood rating system that I devised to place the emphasis where it belongs—the ability of a quarterback to advance the ball, avoid negative plays, and score touchdowns in comparison to his peers. A rating of 100.0 is the league average.)

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/256842-brees-romo-mcnabb-are-week-1-qber-leaders

Maybe it should come as no surprise that less than 4 percentage points separate Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre and Philip Rivers in the QBER race this late in the season.

Manning, Brees, Rodgers and Favre have been at or near the top since Week One, and no quarterback has been more efficient than Rivers in recent weeks.

The gap between the top-ranked Manning and runner-up Brees is closer than ever—fourth-tenths of 1 percent—which also follows a familiar pattern. In the first 15 weeks, Brees ranked No. 1 on five occasions, while Manning set the pace six times. Favre (three weeks) and Matt Hasselbeck (one) are the only others to rank first overall. 

Manning is a distant fifth in the NFL passer ratings, primarily because they do not take into account sack, fumble and interception yardage. Thus far, he lost only 69 yards in those categories, one of the lowest totals in the league.

 

The QBER leaders through Week 15 of the regular season:

1. Peyton Manning 135.7

2. Drew Brees 135.3

3. Philip Rivers 135.0

4. Aaron Rodgers 133.9

5. Brett Favre 131.8

6. Donovan McNabb 128.0

7. Tony Romo 125.3

8. Eli Manning 121.0

9. Matt Schaub 120.2

10. Tom Brady 118.2

11. Ben Roethlisberger 114.2

12. Joe Flacco 112.6

13. Kyle Orton 111.6

14. Carson Palmer 107.3

15. Kurt Warner 106.6

16. Matt Ryan 103.0

17. Alex Smith 97.9

18. David Garrard 95.2

19. Matt Hasselbeck 91.0

20. Jason Campbell 90.7

21. Matt Cassel 85.9

22. Chad Henne 82.3

23. Brady Quinn 81.9

24. Jay Cutler 81.5

25. Marc Bulger 79.4

26. Josh Freeman 70.4

27. Matthew Stafford 67.4

28. Mark Sanchez 63.9

29. JaMarcus Russell 54.0

30. Jake Delhomme 46.4

 

 

A few observations:

In December, the priority shifts to the run game, right? Not in the modern NFL it doesn’t. Last week there were more pass attempts (1,143), yards (8,265) and turnovers (45) than in any other this season, further proof that the forward pass is where it’s at these days. 

A 479-yard, three-touchdown, zero-turnover performance vaulted Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger into 11th place, his high point of the season. If not for the league-high 506 yards that he lost on sacks, fumbles and interceptions, Big Ben would be on an even shorter list.    

Carolina Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme is done for the season, and not a moment too soon. The veteran ranked last or next-to-last in QBER every week this season. The culprit was a 21-to-4 turnovers-net touchdowns ratio. In his first three starts, successor Matt Moore totaled four TD pass and two turnovers.   

It has been this kind of season for JaMarcus Russell , the embattled Oakland Raiders signal-caller: When he totaled 34 yards, one touchdown and zero turnovers in 12 drop-backs last week, his QBER improved to 54.0, his best rank in nine weeks.

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NFL Week 16 Predictions

Posted on 24 December 2009 by NFLShare

Last week’s record: 9-7

Overall record: 149-75

Lock of the Week: 12-for-15

San Diego (11-3) @ Tennessee (7-7): These two teams have lost a total of one game since Week Six. Something has got to give here. Obviously, Tennessee can’t absorb another loss, but they won’t stop what the Chargers are doing right now. The Titans have had trouble stopping good passing attacks all year, which is something Philip Rivers and his receivers can exploit.

San Diego wins, 27-21

Buffalo (5-9) @ Atlanta (7-7): The Falcons seemed determined to give the franchise its second consecutive winning season for the first time in its history. Neither team looks great coming into the game, but Atlanta’s twelfth man will be the difference in what will be a close one.

Atlanta wins, 16-10

Kansas City (3-11) @ Cincinnati (9-5): This may end up being closer than most expect, but the Chiefs will not win. The Bengals are getting ready to make a playoff run and the Chiefs are getting ready to watch the playoffs. Cincy will also clinch the AFC North when they win.

Cincy wins, 27-14

Oakland (5-9) @ Cleveland (3-11): A few weeks ago, this looked dreadful. It still doesn’t smell like roses, but both teams are coming in with momentum. Oakland looks like the better team, so they will end Cleveland’s two-game winning streak.

Oakland wins, 20-10

Seattle (5-9) @ Green Bay (9-5): Seattle looked absolutely pathetic last week. The Bucs should not be able to come in and dominate the way they did. The Packers gave up a lot of yards last week, but the Seahawks aren’t the Steelers. Green Bay should take care of business and wrap up a playoff spot.

Green Bay wins, 30-12

Houston (7-7) @ Miami (7-7): Whichever team loses this game is done. Chad Henne, outside of the overtime interception, looked pretty good last week, so the pressure won’t get to him at all. The same cannot be said for the Texans.

There have been two or three games this year that many have called the biggest game in the franchise’s history and they’ve lost them all. This is probably another one of those big games, but why would it be any different than the others?

Miami wins, 24-18

Jacksonville (7-7) @ New England (9-5): Although this is an elimination game for the Jags, it’s almost as important to the Pats. They haven’t wrapped up the division yet and they’ve looked average over their past few games. The Jags gave Indy a good game last week, but that’s typical in that match-up. They won’t play as well this week.

New England wins, 21-10

Tampa Bay (2-12) @ New Orleans (13-1): The Saints are coming off their first loss of the season and I can’t imagine they’re too happy about that. This will be a sacrifice.

New Orleans wins, 42-6

Carolina (6-8) @ New York Giants (8-6): The Panthers will undoubtedly put up a better fight than the Redskins did, but the Giants know that they cannot lose anymore. This will be extremely close until the end, but the Giants will pull it out because they want it more.

New York Giants win, 23-21

Baltimore (8-6) @ Pittsburgh (7-7): The Ravens have been waiting a long time for this one. Ben Roethlisberger has beaten them four straight times, the last of which was for a berth in the Super Bowl. Baltimore knows that if it wins, the Steelers are done.

However, Pittsburgh took them to overtime in Baltimore without Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu, and Aaron Smith. This will be extremely physical, but the Steelers will not let Baltimore eliminate them on their field.

Pittsburgh wins, 24-20

St. Louis (1-13) @ Arizona (9-5): Arizona has had trouble putting away teams that they should beat easily. It won’t be a big problem unless they lose here, or even if they have trouble shutting the door.

Arizona wins, 29-9

Detroit (2-12) @ San Francisco (6-8): The Lions have been killed by injuries, although that didn’t stop them from giving Arizona all they could handle last week. The Niners aren’t the offensive juggernaut that the Cards are, but they have still been putting up decent numbers recently. That will be enough to give them the win.

San Francisco wins, 19-13

New York Jets (7-7) @ Indianapolis Colts (14-0): The Jets aren’t a bad team, but they’ve got a rookie under center that can’t stop turning the ball over. Opponents of Indianapolis have to keep mistakes to a minimum and the Jets aren’t capable of doing that, which means their season ends in Indianapolis.

Indy wins, 26-7

Denver (8-6) @ Philadelphia (10-4): Denver’s loss to Oakland really hurts because now, this is a must-win. If this game was in Denver, it may be a different story, but in Philly, Denver will not win. The Eagles are playing much, much better than the Broncos are, not to mention Brian Westbrook’s return.

Philly wins, 31-18

Dallas (9-5) @ Washington (4-10): Dallas got a huge win last week while the Redskins were pathetic, embarrassing themselves and their fans. Dallas will destroy them.

Dallas wins, 30-16

Minnesota (11-3) @ Chicago (5-9): Minnesota will win this game easily, but the story will be whether or not Brett Favre and Brad Childress are on the same page. Childress made the team all about Favre when he brought him in and now he has to deal with all of the inevitable drama that Favre brings.

It won’t be a problem this week, but that along with Adrian Peterson not being much of a factor recently will be a problem in the playoffs.

Minnesota wins, 27-7 (Lock of the Week)

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2010 NFL Mock Draft First Round: Tebow Reuniting with Former Teammate?

Posted on 24 December 2009 by NFLShare

With so many teams out of the playoff race already, a mock draft may be the perfect remedy for those ailing fans.  The Rams, if the season ended today, would be on the clock to pick first overall, and it’s really no secret which direction they are looking with that selection.

 

1.  St. Louis Rams:  Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

The Rams need a player to build their franchise around, and Suh is that kind of player.  He is a game-changing force at defensive tackle and he demands a double-team on every play.  He will make former first-round picks Chris Long and Adam Carriker much more effective on their young, talented defensive line.

 

2.  Detroit Lions:  Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

The Lions will be hard pressed to pass on Gerald McCoy or Russell Okung in this spot, but Berry is too talented to pass on.  He is arguably the top prospect available in this draft, and he has drawn comparisons to Ed Reed of the Baltimore Ravens.

 

3.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

The Bucs would likely be fine with either McCoy or Suh here, as there is little talent drop-off between the two.  McCoy is an elite defensive line prospect who will be a cornerstone for the Bucs to build around.

 

4.  Cleveland Browns:  Derrick Morgan, DE/OLB, Georgia Tech

A lot of people think the Browns need a quarterback, but I am not one of them.  I think Brady Quinn played well enough in the last couple of games before going down to have earned, at the very least, the top QB spot heading into training camp in 2010. 

Enter Derrick Morgan, arguably the top pass-rushing prospect available in the draft.  He would give the Browns a great pass rush option off the edge and he is also stout against the run.

 

5.  Kansas City Chiefs:  Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

Kansas City’s pass protection is absolutely dreadful and Okung would be a huge step in the right direction to fixing that area of their team.  Matt Cassel, the team’s franchise player, needs to remain upright to do much of anything for the Chiefs.

 

6.  Washington Redskins:  Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland

The Redskins could look to one of many places with this pick, but taking a local kid in Campbell would be a strong step in the right direction for the organization.  Campbell is a very athletic tackle who would be able to step in to protect the blind side of whatever quarterback will be under center in Washington.

 

7.  Buffalo Bills:  Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas

The Bills need a reason for fans to come to games as well as a franchise quarterback, and Mallett gives them both.  He is an exciting prospect with a strong arm and phenomenal size.  Some think he will go back to school, but with Jake Locker’s decision to return and the possibility of a rookie money cap in 2011, Mallett may be inclined to take it while it’s hot.

 

8.  Seattle Seahawks:  Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

The Seahawks need to move on from Matt Hasselbeck and take their quarterback of the future with this pick.  Jimmy Clausen is getting mixed reviews, but he has all of the tools to succeed in the NFL and would be a solid pick for the Seahawks.

 

9.  Denver Broncos (from Chicago):  Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama

It seems like McClain to Denver is the closest thing to unanimous as you will find on mock drafts, and for good reason.  McClain has the makings of an elite linebacker prospect who will lead a defense for the next decade-plus.  He has outstanding size and would be a great heir to Andra Davis to play alongside D.J. Williams in the middle of Denver’s 3-4 defensive scheme.

 

10.  Oakland Raiders:  Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

The Raiders may finally get one right in 2010 if they go for Anthony Davis.  They need to upgrade their offensive line in a bad way, as they rank near the bottom in most offensive categories.  Davis is an intriguing prospect with great size and athleticism, and the Raiders may fall in love with his measurables.

 

11.  San Francisco 49ers:  Joe Haden, CB, Florida

Dre’ Bly and Nate Clements are not getting any younger, and the 49ers could look to simply the best player available here.  In both cases, I think they need to look at Joe Haden, who has no business falling outside of the top 10.  He is the closest thing to a shutdown corner in this draft.

 

12.  San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina):  Navorro Bowman, DE/OLB, Penn State

With their next pick, I think the 49ers should look to either an offensive lineman or a top-flight pass rusher, and Bowman fits the latter.  He brings a great force off the edge and would give the Niners a complete group of young linebackers.

 

13.  Jacksonville Jaguars:  Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

Mike Sims-Walker cannot do it all on his own, and while Tim Tebow has been the popular pick for this team, there is simply no way the Jags take him this high.  Dez Bryant is too good to pass on here.  Plain and simple.

 

14.  Pittsburgh Steelers:  Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

Despite the fact that Ben Roethlisberger is behind his offensive line 100 percent, I think they could stand to be upgraded.  Trent Williams is a very solid prospect who could easily go in the top 10.  Pittsburgh would likely welcome him with open arms.

 

15.  Houston Texans:  Taylor Mays, S, USC

This is a great fit, and I probably won’t change this pick unless I hear definitively otherwise.  Mays is a freakish athlete, similar to 2009 first-round pick Brian Cushing, and he fills a huge void at safety for the Texans.  Great pick.

 

16.  New York Jets:  Carlos Dunlap, DL, Florida

Dunlap is good value here, and the Jets need help along the defensive front.  Terrence Cody is another possibility here, but Dunlap is a better prospect.

 

17.  Atlanta Falcons:  Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

John Abraham is not getting younger and the Jammal Anderson project was a complete failure.  Jason Pierre-Paul is a stellar pass-rushing prospect who is really rising up draft boards fast.  He would be a nice addition to the Atlanta defense.

 

18.  Tennessee Titans:  Dan Williams, DL, Tennessee

The loss of Albert Haynesworth has clearly hurt the Titans’ defense, and they could use some more size along their defensive front.  Dan Williams is a good-sized prospect with excellent athleticism. 

 

19.  Miami Dolphins:  Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida

There is a chance Miami could go for a nose tackle here, but I like them to take a defensive signal-caller for the future to pair with Channing Crowder in the middle of their 3-4 scheme.  Spikes is a solid prospect whose stock has taken a bit of a fall lately.

 

20.  New York Giants:  Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas

Kindle is good value here for the Giants.  He is a great pass rusher who could line up at end or outside linebacker with his elite athleticism.  He is having one of the most productive seasons of his career as a senior, and will be a solid NFL player wherever he goes.

 

21.  Baltimore Ravens:  Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame

I’m not usually a fan of smaller wide receivers going in round one, but Tate reminds me a lot of Reggie Wayne of the Indianapolis Colts.  He plays a lot bigger than his size and is a beast after the catch. 

 

22.  Seattle Seahawks (from Denver):  C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

After fixing their atrocious quarterback situation, the Seahawks get a huge steal here with Clemson star C.J. Spiller, who reminds me a lot of Chris Johnson.  He has absolutely blazing speed and is a dangerous threat in the return game.

 

23.  Green Bay Packers:  Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

The Packers’ pass protection is awful and Aaron Rodgers is not going to last long if he is consistently on his back.  Bulaga is no lock to come out early, but if he does he is good value here for the Packers.

 

24.  Arizona Cardinals:  Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Big shocker here, but hear me out on this one.  Kurt Warner may play one more year at the very most, so Bradford could potentially sit for a year.  I think it’s safe to say that Matt Leinart is not a good fit for the Cardinals’ system, so enter Sam Bradford.  Bradford sits for a year behind Warner, if he comes back, and becomes the starter in 2011.

 

25.  Cincinnati Bengals:  Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

The Bengals have long needed a top-flight, pass-receiving tight end and Gresham falling into their laps would be a huge stroke of luck.  He gives Carson Palmer a huge target to stretch the field, and is a big-time mismatch for linebackers.

 

26.  Dallas Cowboys:  Earl Thomas, S, Texas

This pick is a major steal.  Earl Thomas is a top-15 prospect, but I have him falling due to other teams’ needs.  Dallas would jump at the opportunity to pick him up and fortify their defensive backfield.

 

27.  New England Patriots:  Jahvid Best, RB, Cal

The Patriots really are just going with the best player available here, since no player available really fits a glaring area of need, though Best does fit the need of a speed back, which New England lacks.  In fact, they really lack a lot at the running back position, so this would be a nice selection for the Patriots.

 

28.  Philadelphia Eagles:  Brian Price, DL, UCLA

The Eagles are always looking to beef up their front seven, and Price would be an excellent fit there.  He is rising quickly up draft boards, and is having a great junior season.

 

29.  Minnesota Vikings:  Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

I’m ready for this pick and the Sam Bradford pick to be the main focus of attention of this mock, but this really is a good fit.  Tebow reunites with former teammate Percy Harvin and becomes an exciting prospect for Minnesota, who could also use help at linebacker.  I think Tebow is a good fit for this team.

 

30.  San Diego Chargers:  Terrence Cody, DL, Alabama

Jamal Williams’ time is nearly up, and “Mount” Cody would be a nice replacement for him.  He is a space-eater who has been questioned in the past for his work ethic.  He is an elite level run stopper, and he is much more athletic than his size would indicate.

 

31.  New Orleans Saints:  Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri

The Saints would be wise to upgrade their front seven with this pick, and Weatherspoon is a solid prospect for an outside linebacker in the 4-3.  He has been on NFL radars going on three years now.

 

32.  Indianapolis Colts:  Mike Iupati, G, Idaho

The Colts’ offensive line is one of the best in the league, but their only weaknesses lie in the guard positions.  Iupati plays with a chip on his shoulder and would be an excellent addition to this Colts’ offense.

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Changes the Steelers Need To Make for the Ravens Game (HUMOR)

Posted on 23 December 2009 by NFLShare

I wrote an article a couple weeks ago that was in the humor category, but people seemed to think it was serious. Even though it was tagged as a humorous article, I took a lot of heat for it.

So, I am telling you all right now, this is a humor article. Nothing I am saying is serious, and if you cannot take what I am saying as a joke, then stop reading now, and go do something productive with the three minutes you would have spent reading this!

As the Steelers enter their Week 16 matchup with the Baltimore Ravens, the injury report is growing. Troy Polamalu is not expected to play, but Hines Ward is going to play, regardless of what anyone says or does from here until Sunday (That part is actually true, as Ward said so on ESPN 1250 here in Pittsburgh).

Limas Sweed has been put on the Non-Football/Injury/Illness report. No one knows what the illness is, but I am breaking that story right here.

I caught up with Sweed as he was about to board a plane back to Texas, and while he choked back tears, he told me, “I just can’t stand to watch the defense melt down like this in the fourth quarter.”

Joey Galloway has been signed to add depth to the Steelers wide receiving corp. With Galloway doing so well in New England this year, Mike Tomlin decided to bring him in. What no one knows is that Galloway is not coming to take the place of Sweed—who would not have played anyway—but to take the place of Hines Ward.

Ward will be playing, but not on offense.

Ward, who many believe is one of the hardest hitters in the NFL, will be starting at safety for the injured Troy Polamalu. When asked if he would be able to convert to Safety, Ward said, “Could I possibly do worse than Tyrone Carter?”

When asked about how the Steelers will fair in the passing game without Ward, there were conflicting statements from quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians.

Arians insisted that the Steelers would be focusing more on running the ball, as he promised to get both Rashard Mendenhall and Willie Parker more carries than they have had all season. He also promised that they would both carry the ball at least four times each.

Roethlisberger has other thoughts on the matter, saying, “Did Bruce really say that?” Before adding, “he can send in any plays he wants, I’ll just change them at the line like I always do. At least when we score.”

The Steelers’ special teams have been an area of concern, and long snapper, Greg Warren, has been placed on season-ending IR. The rumor the Steelers want everyone to believe is that last year’s long snapper, Jared Retkofsky, has been re-signed. They want people to believe this so much that they even added his name to the roster on Steelers.com.

Truth be told, James Harrison is going to be handling the long snapping duties Sunday. Everyone knows that Harrison’s best games come against his former team, the Ravens, so Tomlin is going to do everything in his power to get him on the field as much as possible.

As for the defensive concerns, with teams passing at will on the Steelers secondary, Dick LeBeau has stated that it is not going to happen this Sunday. LeBeau said in our telephone interview this afternoon, “The Ravens don’t throw the ball, so we really don’t have to worry about that,” and then added, “do they even have a receiver that is active this week?”

Overall, Tomlin has stated that this week’s game is going to be a heavyweight battle royal, where two of the hardest-hitting teams in the NFL will meet in a 15-round battle. Tomlin stated, “We feel that it is important to go for the knock out, because if this game goes the distance, anything can happen.”

ALL QUOTES IN THIS ARTICLE ARE FAKE AND MADE UP BY ME! NONE OF THE PEOPLE SAID ANYTHING THAT I SAID IN THIS ARTICLE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HINES WARDS COMMENT FROM ESPN 1250.

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