WEEK 17 GAMES

1. Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

2. Cincinatti Bengals @ New York Jets

3. New England Patriots @ Houston Texans

4. Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders

5. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins

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The NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures state that the only way to eliminate a team in a tie would be if all of the teams have defeated a certain team. In this case that is not applicable, the next tie breaker is conference record.

CONFERENCE RECORD FOR EACH TEAM:

Denver Broncos: 6-5

New York Jets: 6-5

Baltimore Ravens: 6-5

Pittsburgh Steelers: 5-6

Houston Texans: 5-6

As you can see there is still a three way tie for the 5th seed, so the next tie breaker rule must be used. The next tie-breaker is best win-loss percentage in common games, a minimum of four must be common. Thus far through the season four games are not common, so the next tie-breaker must be used to break a tie between Denver, New York, and Baltimore. The next tie breaker is STRENGTH OF VICTORY.

Strength of Victory Rankings:

Denver Broncos – (62-58)

New York Jets – (58-62)

Baltimore – (46-74)

* Therefore, currently the Denver Broncos are the #5 seed in the AFC Playoffs *

NOTE: If each team wins their respective games next week the standings will look like this.

New York Jets – (68-68)

Denver Broncos – (65-71)

Baltimore Ravens – (51-85)

* Therefore, next week if they all three win the New York Jets will receive the #5 seed in the AFC Playoffs

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After the Denver Broncos are currently awarded the 5th seed the tie-breaking procedure starts all over again.

CONFERENCE RECORD FOR EACH TEAM:

NEW YORK JETS: 6-5

BALTIMORE RAVENS: 6-5

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: 5-6

HOUSTON TEXANS: 5-6

Another tie between the Ravens and Jets would send the tie-breaker to common opponents where the New York Jets would win the tie-breaker because they have played four common games.

* This would currently give the New York Jets the 6th seed in the AFC Playoffs *

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What would happen if this happened?

Denver beats Kansas City

New York Jets beats Cincinatti

Baltimore beats Oakland

Pittsburgh beats Miami

Houston beats New England

* Based on the exact scenario previously noted – Denver, Baltimore, and New York would all be tied at 7-5 within the division. Now there would be a fourth common opponent with Baltimore playing Oakland and Cincinatti playing the New York Jets. This would put the first tie-break as follows:

New York Jets (3-2) vs. NE, OAK, CIN, IND

Denver Broncos (2-3) vs. NE, OAK, CIN, IND

Baltimore Ravens (1-4) vs. NE, OAK, CIN, IND

NOTE: The #5 seed in the AFC would be awarded to the New York Jets

That would leave Denver and Baltimore to battle for the 6th seed with their conference records at 7-5. The advantage goes to Baltimore based on the first tie-breaker, head-to-head games. Baltimore defeated Denver 30-7 earlier in the season

NOTE: The #6 seed in the AFC would be awarded to the Baltimore Ravens

* Any 9-7 tie between NYJ, BAL, DEN would leave the Broncos the odd team out based on the above information.

Therefore, after week 16 it may look like the Denver Broncos are in the 5th seed but they are actually the 7th and out of the playoffs.

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What would happen if this happened?

Denver WINS

Baltimore LOSES

New York Jets WIN

Houston WINS

Pittsburgh WINS

That would leave four teams at 9-7 to battle for the two playoff spots. Based on the common opponents angle played out in the last scenario. The New York Jets would have the advantage over Denver based on a one-game advantage against IND, OAK, CIN, and NE.

NOTE: The New York Jets would be awarded the 5th seed in the AFC Playoffs

That would leave Denver, Pittsburgh, and Houston left at 9-7 for the remaining spot. Denver can NOT win a head-to-head tie breaker with Pittsburgh. Therefore, if Pittsburgh wins, Denver needs Houston to win also. This would change the tie-breaker to conference record, giving the Broncos the one-game advantage.

NOTE: The Denver Broncos would be awarded the 6th seed in the AFC Playoffs

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What would happen if this happened?

Denver WINS

New York LOSES

Baltimore WINS

Pittsburgh WINS

Houston WINS

Based on the head-to-head game between Baltimore and Denver, Baltimore would have the advantage over Denver with them both being the two teams at 7-5 with conference record.

NOTE: The Baltimore Ravens would be awarded the 5th seed in the AFC Playoffs

This is the exact same scenario played out for the 6th seed as in the previous section.

NOTE: The Denver Broncos would be awarded the 6th seed in the AFC Playoffs.

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What would happen if this happened?

Denver WINS

Baltimore LOSES

New York Jets LOSE

Pittsburgh WINS

Houston WINS

Based on conference record, the advantage would go to the Denver Broncos for the 5th seed.

NOTE: The Denver Broncos would be awarded the 5th seed in the AFC Playoffs.

Houston and Pittsburgh would finished tied in conference record without a head-to-head match up and would therefore be forced into the common opponents tie-breaker.

Houston Texans: 4-1 against MIA, TEN, OAK, CIN

Pittsburgh Steelers: 2-3 against MIA, TEN, OAK, CIN

NOTE: The Houston Texans would be awarded the 6th seed in the AFC Playoffs

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Would happen if this happened?

Denver WINS

Baltimore WINS

New York LOSES

Pittsburgh LOSES

Houston WINS

Based on head-to-head and conference record, Baltimore would get the edge for the higher seed.

NOTE: The Baltimore Ravens would be awarded the 5th seed in the AFC Playoffs.

Based on conference record without a head-to-head match up, Denver would have the advantage over Houston

NOTE: The Denver Broncos would be awarded the 6th seed in the AFC Playoffs.

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What would happen if this happened?

Denver LOSES

Baltimore WINS

New York WINS

Pittsburgh WINS

Houston WINS or LOSES

* Based on record among common opponents after the conference record tie-breaker, New York would be given the edge over Baltimore.

NOTE: The New York Jets would be awarded the 5th seed in the AFC Playoffs.

* The only divisional tie-breaker that could come into play between teams is Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The NFL has a separate order of tie-breaker rules for divisional foes when it comes to Wild Card seeding. Therefore the division would come down to the record against divisional opponents. Both were swept by Cincinatti and split against each other. Pittsburgh lost to Cleveland two weeks back, giving the advantage to Baltimore by one-game.

NOTE: The Baltimore Ravens would be awarded the 6th seed in the AFC Playoffs.

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THE BOTTOM LINE FOR YOUR TEAM:

Denver Broncos:

This is what you need to see happen in the 1:00pm EST games on Sunday for you to have a realistic shot going into your home game. You need the Houston Texans to defeat the New England Patriots. This definitely could happen if they decide to rest their stars. You would also like to see the Miami Dolphins defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers. If Pittsburgh does win you are still alive. At 4:00pm EST, you will need to win your game against the Kansas City Chiefs and hope your hated Raiders can upset the Ravens. If Pittsburgh and Houston have both won, you will still be alive going into the night game in New York. If you Houston has lost and Baltimore has won, it’s all over.

DENVER CAN GET INTO THE PLAYOFFS IF:

Denver Wins + Houston Wins + Baltimore Loses (#6 seed)

Denver Wins + Houston Wins + New York Loses (#6 seed)

Any scenario in which three of the 8-7 teams lose and they win.

Baltimore Ravens:

It’s pretty simple Ravens fans, WIN and you are IN. If you lose you have the advantage in many of the 8-8 tie-breakers based on conference record, but the chances of that happening are bery unlikely

BALTIMORE CAN GET INTO THE PLAYOFFS IF:

Baltimore Wins (#5 or #6 pending on New York)

New York Jets:

What a relief in New York. Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that you wouldn’t have a playoff team? If you defeat Cincinatti on Sunday night you will be dancing in the streets based on all of the advantages you hold with division record and common opponent tie-breakers.

NEW YORK CAN GET INTO THE PLAYOFFS IF:

New York Wins (#5 seed is most likely)

Pittsburgh Steelers:

All you had to do was beat the Cleveland Browns and you didn’t. Now you need a ton of help. It’s too bad because you have a very good team and an underachieving team in many respects. A Houston loss in the early set will give them some hope, but you have to beat the Dolphins first.

PITTSBURGH CAN GET INTO THE PLAYOFFS IF:

Pittsburgh Wins + New York Jets Lose + Houston Loses

Any of the three 8-7 teams lose and you win

Houston Texans:

It wouldn’t have crossed my mind that you Texans fans would be dreaming of postseason football, but I am rooting for head coach Gary Kubiak. You need to hope that it comes down to a head-to-head tie-break between you and Pittsburgh. In any of those situations, the Texans will get in based on the common-opponent tie-breaker. In other word if two of three teams with a 6-5 conference record lose and Houston wins, it’s party time.

HOUSTON CAN GET INTO THE PLAYOFFS IF:

Houston Wins + Baltimore Loses + New York Jets Lose

Houston Wins + New York Jets Lose + Denver Loses

Houston Wins + Denver Loses + Baltimore Loses

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Obviously, there will be a hundred other possible scenarios if an 8-8 team makes the playoffs. If that’s how it happens, none of the five deserve to play in the Wild Card round. New York and Baltimore are the frontrunners at this point, but crazier things have happened in week 17. Ask the 2007 Denver Broncos who lost to a bad San Francisco team at home. Ask the 2003 Minnesota Vikings who traveled down to Tempe, Arizona and lost a win-and-your-in game in week 17. It seems to happen every couple years. A team that looks like they play a cupcake in the last week, will let them hang around the entire game, and they will pull it out in the last few minutes. Oakland has the talent to beat the Ravens. Just look at Baltimore’s strength of victory, it’s terrible. Cincinatti could be playing for the 3rd seed in the playoffs on Sunday night if Houston pulls this upset early in the afternoon. Denver is crossing their fingers that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have some plan to only play a quarter. They might not care if they get the 4th seed because they might not want to play Peyton Manning until the AFC Championship. There is no telling what will happen next weekend. We all can count on a lot of drama beginning with the early games on Sunday afternoon. Have fun AFC football fans because it’s not very often five teams have legit hope in the final weekend of the season.

Read more New York Jets news on BleacherReport.com

Jim Caldwell pulled his star players (at least on offense) out of the game halfway through the third quarter with a 15-10 lead over the Jets. And thus, Peyton Manning, Dallas Clark, and Reggie Wayne watched as rookie Curtis Painter’s fumble returned-touchdown gave the Jets an 18-15 lead, which turned into a 29-15 loss.

And why not? Caldwell said weeks ago that he would continue that strategy of Tony Dungy, resting his players before the playoffs after they’ve clinched the top seed. That didn’t surprise many people, and therefore this didn’t surprise anybody.

Except in this case, I do have to ask, “Why?”

All decade we’ve seen the Colts dominate the regular season, only to fall short of the ultimate goal. Coach Tony Dungy played the same tune every year, clinching the top seed and resting Peyton Manning and Co. in the last week or two.

But no one every questioned it, because it was the accepted thing to do. Rest your players for the playoffs: the games that actually matter.

There are two advantages to resting players: getting them some rest to recuperate from the long season, and keeping them injury-free.

And this is why I don’t get the decision to sit the stars. Rest? You’ll get that during the bye. two weeks is plenty of rest: anything more than that and players start to lose their edge.

Keeping from injury is the part that normally I’d understand. As we’ve seen so many times, an injury to the wrong player can cripple a team (Tom Brady in 2008, Bob Sanders in 2006).

That being said, I think there are only two players that are valuable enough to be rested to be protected from injury: Peyton Manning and Dallas Clark.

That’s not to say other players aren’t important, but injuries are rare enough in the NFL that i don’t think its worth throwing away an undefeated season to protect anybody else from injury. Reggie Wayne? Borderline. But Peyton Manning makes everyone around him good enough he wouldn’t be as missed as he would on another team.

Dwight Freeney? Also borderline, but as long as they have either him or Robert Mathis on the field, they’re going to get pressure. But I wouldn’t object to resting either of those two. I don’t object to the resting of Dallas Clark either.

But Peyton’s a different story. As long as he’s on the field, the Colts will be the better team. He’s that good. So i would understand resting him except for one thing: Calvin Pace’s sack of Curtis Painter on his first drive was the first the Colts had allowed in over 150 dropbacks. That’s the equivalent of three, maybe four, maybe even five or six games.

So with Peyton barely taking any hits during the course of a game, where’s the injury risk? Why not go for the undefeated season?

It’s the only thing this Colt’s team hasn’t achieved during this Manning era, and therefore, it will be considered incomplete. Because Brady and the Patriots were able to do it, so should Manning and the Colts. I just don’t get the lack of desire to do something only two teams have ever done.

Read more Indianapolis Colts news on BleacherReport.com

Six Championships.

Six Victory Parades.

Historic Records.

Blockbuster trades.

The last 10 years washed away the 86-year curse of the Red Sox, saw the Patriots win three Lombardi trophies, and the Celtics raise banner number 17. Now we are just waiting for the Bruins to join the championship party.

Let’s re-live and revel in the top 10 sports moments in Boston, “The City of Champions.”

10: The Boston Bruins finally win a playoff series

Yes, it may not be a championship, but when you finally win a playoff series after 10 seasons, it’s a big deal.

The Bruins swept the hated Montreal Canadiens in the 2008-2009 NHL playoffs. This was the team’s first playoff series victory since they defeated Carolina in 1999.

Boston would go on to lose to the former “Whale” four games to three in the second round of the playoffs.

9: Tom Brady and Randy Moss have a record-setting night in New York

On Dec. 29, 2007, the Patriots faced the New York Giants for a chance at regular season perfection. There were also two records up for grabs. Tom Brady connected with Randy Moss on a 65-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Brady would break Peyton Manning’s single season record of 49 touchdowns with his 50th scoring strike. On the same play, Moss hauled in his 23rd touchdown reception to break Jerry Rice’s record.

8: Patriots have perfect regular season but lose to Giants in the Super Bowl

The Patriots defeated the New York Giants 38-35 in the regular season finale to become the first team to go 16-0 in the regular season. After defeating Jacksonville and San Diego in the playoffs, the Patriots were one win away from perfection.

New England would face the Giants again but this time in Super Bowl XLII. After taking a 14-10 lead on a Brady to Moss touchdown pass, the Giants would make some miraculous plays on their final drive.

Eli Manning avoided a certain sack and found David Tyree for the “Catch.” Soon after, Manning would find Plaxico Burress with 35 seconds left to give New York a 17-14 lead. The lead held and the Giants would hand the Patriots their only loss in the biggest game of the season.

Miami’s record was still intact.

7: The Red Sox defeat Colorado in the 2007 World Series

The Red Sox would win their second championship in four years after 86 years of futility. Boston made it interesting as they always do. They trailed Cleveland in the ALCS three games to one, before rallying to win three straight.

The Colorado Rockies were no match for the Red Sox. They swept Colorado in the World Series fueled by Series MVP, Mike Lowell. Lowell hit .400 with one homer and four RBI.

6: The Patriots win back-to-back Super Bowls

The Patriots defeated Carolina 32-39 in Super Bowl XXXVIII on the foot of Adam Vinatieri for their second championship in three years. New England would return to the Super Bowl the following year and they would be triumphant yet again.

The victim this time was the Philadelphia Eagles, who fell to New England, 24-21.

The Patriots were the first team since the 1998-1999 Denver Broncos to win consecutive Super Bowls. New England also joined an elite group of NFL dynasties (’60s Packers, ’70s Steelers, ’80s Niners, and ’90s Cowboys) with their third championship in four years.

5 The Boston Celtics defeated the Los Angeles Lakers for banner No. 17

After finishing the 2006-7 season with only 24 wins the Celtics, with a re-tooled roster that included Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen, would roll through the season.

Boston would post 66 regular season wins. They would be pushed to the brink by Atlanta and Cleveland in the playoffs, but would end both series at home.

After a gritty performance against Detroit in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics advanced to the NBA Finals against the hated Lakers. The Celtics took the first two games at home before succumbing to the Lakers in Game Three.

In the pivotal Game Four, the Celtics had a comeback for the ages. They would go to rally from 24 points down to defeat LA at the Staples Center. Boston had the momentum in the series and would go on to beat LA in six games for their record 17th world championship.

4 Ray Allen and KG come to Boston

After an abysmal 24-win season, the Celtics would get the fifth pick and miss out on franchise players Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. Danny Ainge would trade the pick along with forward Wally Szczerbiak and guard Delonte West to Seattle for guard Ray Allen and the pick that would become “Big Baby” Davis.

Danny Ainge was far from done wheeling and dealing.

He would acquire the final piece of the championship puzzle. Ainge would strike a deal with former Celtic teammate, Kevin McHale for 10-time All-Star Kevin Garnett. The Timberwolves received Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, and a 2009 first round draft pick in return.

The new “Big 3” was assembled and paid instant dividends. In their first season together, Pierce, Allen, and Garnett led the Celtics to their 17th championship.

3: The Patriots defeat the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI

After franchise quarterback, Drew Bledsoe, was injured in an early season game, a seventh round pick from Michigan would lead the Patriots on a remarkable journey. Tom Brady came off the bench to lead the Patriots to an 11-5 record after starting off 0-2. New England would go on to win their division and secure a first round bye.

In a snowstorm versus Oakland, Brady and the Patriots would rally from a 13-3 deficit and beat the Raiders in overtime. The game forever remembered for the “Tuck Rule” catapulted the Patriots and laid the foundation for a dynasty.

New England would defeat the heavily favored Steelers in AFC Championship to take on the “Greatest Show On Turf” in Super Bowl XXXVI in New Orleans. The Rams were the top offensive club during the season.

The upstart Patriots raced out to a 17-3 lead only to see their wilt advantage away under the Superdome lights. Kurt Warner led his team to two touchdowns which tied up the game at 17-17.

Brady had 1:30 left on the clock and no timeouts remaining. Instead of taking a knee, he went out and made history. He led the team down the field to set up a 48 yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri. The kick was good and gave New England their first Super Bowl Championship.

It was also Boston’s first of six championships in the decade.

2: The Red Sox reverse the curse by beating the Cardinals in the World Series

After the historic comeback versus the Yankees, the World Series was a bit anti-climatic. The Cardinals didn’t have a prayer, it was Boston’s time. The Red Sox would go on to sweep St. Louis for their first championship in 86 years.

It was a victory for generations of Red Sox fans past and present. It was for all the Red Sox players who got close but never achieved the ultimate goal. This championship meant more to the city of Boston and New England than all of the others in the decade combined.

The Red Sox were not just a team but part of Boston’s soul. For a city and region that suffered through the heartache and devastation year after year, but no more.

The Curse had finally been reversed.

1: The Red Sox come back from a 3-0 series deficit to defeat the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS

This series in essence was the World Series for Boston and it didn’t start out well. The Sox trailed the Yankees three games to none in the series. They just got walloped and embarrassed at home, 19-8. Yet again expectations were way too high and it was wait until next year.

Not so fast.

It aint over till it’s over (a Yankee said that, how fitting).

“The Steal” by Dave Roberts in Game Four in the bottom of the ninth off of future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera was the spark for history.

Then the fire just grew.

David Ortiz homered in the bottom of the 12th inning to leave hope for Red Sox nation.

Then he did it again the next night with a game winning single in the 14th inning.

The Sox were now only trailing by one game going back to New York. The momentum pendulum began to swing in a very big way.

Curt Schilling and his bloody red sock pitched a game for the ages in Game Six. He went seven strong innings allowing only one run. Sox win again.

Game Seven. Winner takes all.

And the Sox did just that. They would not leave New York as losers again.

Their bats erupted and the Yankees were left in disbelief. The Red Sox had just finished the biggest comeback in baseball history. And only one of a handful of teams to do so in all of sports.

For me, this was the biggest and most defining moment of the decade in Boston Sports. You may think the World Series victory should come in first, but without the historic comeback versus the Yankees there is no reversing the curse.

Boston is spoiled rotten sports wise. How many cities can say they celebrated six championships in three major sports? None that I know of.

Now when the Patriots and Sox go a few years before another championship, cut them some slack. Enjoy what we just had and what we will have.

The Celtics should raise another banner or two before the “Big Three” retire.

The Bruins are making strides, but all will be forgiven when they raise Lord Stanley’s Cup (fingers crossed).

Be grateful you were around to witness this Boston sports dominance because you will probably never see it again.

Please share comments and thoughts on the best decade in Boston sports history.

Joe Gill is a featured blogger for Boston Sports Then and Now , Rootzoo.com , and Trufan.com

Read more New England Patriots news on BleacherReport.com

Last Week’s Record (16-1)

My Overall Record (111-69)

Write a Comment and tell me what you think of my picks and my article. Thanks!

Good Luck In Your Fantasy Football Championship

Let’s get cracking.

Christmas Special

Friday Night Football

San Diego at Tennessee 

LaDainian Tomlinson upped his yards-per-carry average from 3.23 to 3.27 last week, and that number should continue to rise against a Titans run defense that isn’t nearly as good as its No. 9 rank indicates. The mediocre unit (4.2 YPC, 12 rushing TDs allowed) will be severely impacted by year-ending losses of OLBs Keith Bulluck (torn ACL) and David Thornton (torn pectorals). Bulluck was the Titans’ team captain and playcaller on defense. With difference-making C Nick Hardwick (foot) back, LT is a strong RB2 option. Darren Sproles remains of minimal fantasy significance. Sproles’ week-to-week touch totals (14, 11, 8, 6) have declined steadily over the last month.

The LP Field forecast (mid-40s, 13MPH winds, 20 percent chance of rain) isn’t a concern for passing, which is good news for the throw-happy Bolts. Still-developing Chad Henne dropped 349 yards on the Titans’ No. 31 pass defense in Week 15, and Philip Rivers is fresh off torching Cincinnati’s stout corners for three TDs and 308 yards. Rivers is a top-five QB play. Piping hot again, Vincent Jackson has 12 grabs for 228 yards and two touchdowns in his last two efforts. You won’t find many better fantasy receiver plays for Week 16. Malcom Floyd, however, has proven his weekly ceiling is at around four catches for 60 yards. He also hasn’t scored since Week 7. Tennessee struggles badly to cover tight ends and has virtually no prayer of keeping Antonio Gates in check.

In what projects to be a high-scoring affair, Chris Johnson will remain the Titans’ offensive focal point. Fantasy’s No. 1 player squares off with a Chargers run defense that ranks 21st and permits 4.4 YPC. San Diego’s pass defense is 13th overall, but allowed struggling Carson Palmer to throw for two touchdowns and a season-best 314 yards in Week 15. Vince Young is healthy and worth a look in standard leagues as a low-end QB1. Coming off a three-touchdown performance against a Dolphins secondary that had stiffened of late, V.Y. is an elite two-QB league play.

Justin Gage’s return gives Young four solid receiving options, but Titans wideouts should be avoided in fantasy championships because they can cancel each other out. Justin Gage led the way with 43 yards and two TDs in Week 15, but came off the bench and saw only three targets. Kenny Britt remains a starter, but had two passes come his way against Miami. Nate Washington caught just one ball and re-injured his ankle on the play. While TE Bo Scaife is showing signs of consistency with 4+ catches in five straight, he too is a major risk. Jared Cook and Alge Crumpler can always reappear to “vulture” targets, and San Diego has defended tight ends well recently.

My Pick—Chargers

1:00PM ET Games

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

Coming off an upset loss, the healing Saints should be able to impose their will on the 2-12 Bucs at home. While Tampa’s defense has improved slightly since Raheem Morris stripped demoted coordinator Jim Bates’ playcalling duties, this is still a unit that can be gashed. The Bucs were out gained by Seattle’s No. 22 overall offense in terms of both first downs and total yards despite pulling out a rare win last Sunday. Tampa also does not have the pass rush Dallas was able to generate in Week 15 to slow Drew Brees. Expect a big bounce-back game for Brees and continued strong play from Marques Colston, who led the Saints in receiving yards last week.

Robert Meachem is coming off two mediocre games, but continues to outplay Devery Henderson. Lance Moore saw only two targets (catching one) in his Week 15 return from injuries, and appears to have aggravated his high ankle sprain. He probably won’t face Tampa Bay. Meachem clearly remains the No. 2 fantasy wideout in New Orleans. David Thomas led the team in targets versus Dallas, but is a weak bet to repeat, especially if Jeremy Shockey (toe) returns. Mike Bell came back from his knee injury in Week 15 to gain just eight yards on four carries, but rudely vultured a goal-line touchdown. Pierre Thomas saw 11 touches—his fewest since Week 7. The Bucs can’t stop the run, but it’s still difficult to trust any Saints RB.

The Bucs’ unpredictable backfield usage took another twist at Seattle. Carnell Williams, the workhorse in Weeks 13-14, got 13 touches compared to backup Derrick Ward’s 20. Entering Week 15, Ward had not seen the ball more than 14 times in a game all year. The Saints don’t have a good run defense, particularly when DT Sedrick Ellis (knee) is out, but Tampa’s backs are too untrustworthy to start in fantasy title games. The Bucs got their second win of 2009 despite Josh Freeman. Morris has scaled back Freeman’s aggressiveness after a pick-plagued beginning to December, limiting the rookie’s fantasy upside. He’s still worth a two-QB league play.

The Bucs’ new conservative, run-based attack features Kellen Winslow. K2 resumed pacing the team in targets last Sunday, catching six for 93 yards. With slot man Sammie Stroughter (broken foot) done for the year, Winslow will get even more looks down the seams. He’s a confident top-eight TE1. Antonio Bryant will naturally take a bit of a backseat in the last two games, but is still a quality WR3 in an indoors matchup that could get pass-heavy if the Saints take an early lead. Look for the Bucs’ deep threat to mostly see up-and-down rookie Malcolm Jenkins in coverage.

My Pick- Saints

Kansas City at Cincinnati

Cincinnati’s No. 3 rush defense rank looks swell on paper, but the NT Domata Peko-less unit has been lit up by running backs in three straight weeks. Kevin Smith, Adrian Peterson, and San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson/Darren Sproles rotation have combined for three TDs and 391 total yards on 73 touches (5.34 average) during that span. Jamaal Charles is legitimately a top-12 NFL running back and can’t possibly be benched. Brad Cottam posted a rare decent fantasy game by a Chiefs tight end in Week 15, catching four balls for 62 yards. But the awesomely injury-prone former Tennessee Vol landed on I.R. Wednesday with a cracked bone in his vertebra.

The Paul Brown Stadium conditions (34 degrees, 12MPH winds, 30 percent chance of snow) won’t deter passing, but Matt Cassel is no more than a two-QB league option despite coming off his best game of the year (331 yards, two TDs against the Browns). While Dwayne Bowe’s return helps Cassel’s cause, he’ll face a much stingier pass defense this Sunday; Cincinnati allows just 6.6 yards per pass attempt and a 17:17 TD to INT ratio, compared to Cleveland’s marks of 8.2 and 20:6. The box score says differently, but Bowe retook his No. 1 receiver role immediately in Week 15. He easily led the Chiefs with ten targets and would be a much better WR3 play than Chris Chambers this week.

The Bengals will take a run-first approach against a Chiefs club that served up the third best all-time rushing performance to career third-stringer Jerome Harrison in Week 15. Cedric Benson’s 15-carry, 53-yard effort at San Diego was disappointing last Sunday, but the Bengals had to resort to the pass after falling behind 24-13 early in the third quarter. The Chiefs aren’t going to jump out to a lead like the Bolts. The Bengals will perhaps get Larry Johnson more work than usual (he touched the ball four times in Week 15) against his old team, but don’t bet on it in fantasy. Marvin Lewis’ priority is earning the AFC’s No. 3 seed, not pleasing his mid-season running back pickup.

Carson Palmer broke out of his six-game funk in Week 15, throwing for a season-high 314 yards and two TDs against a strong San Diego pass defense. He still isn’t a top-12 QB when the Bengals will likely run on 35-40 of their 60-or-so snaps. K.C. is also better at defending the pass than the run. Chad Ochocinco—not Palmer owners—is the biggest beneficiary of Palmer’s improvement. The Ocho has scored in three straight and is an elite WR1 against a Chiefs secondary short on speed. We can safely chalk up TE John Paul Foschi’s seven-catch, 82-yard Week 15 as a fluke. But increased usage of Foschi would cut into Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell’s numbers.

My Pick —Bengals

Houston at Miami

The Texans have an edge in this one because they can stop what Miami does best (run), though the unpredictable often results when two lopsidedly-different teams do battle. Houston is second in the league in passing; Miami is 23rd. The Fins have the No. 4 rushing offense; the Texans are tied for dead last. Ricky Williams is still a quality RB2 with 10 TDs in his last nine games and at least 20 touches in six straight. It doesn’t hurt Williams’ matchup that Texans leading tackler Brian Cushing is dealing with foot, rib, and knee injuries. He’ll play, but clearly isn’t 100 percent.

The Texans’ top-12 pass defense is legit, having not allowed a single opposing wide receiver to top 52 yards in the last three weeks. No Fins wideout is worth consideration. Chad Henne showed that he remains a work in progress last Sunday by throwing three picks against a Titans defense that ranks 31st against the pass. Henne will benefit from one of the most favorable non-domed weather forecasts in Week 15 (73 degrees, 30 percent chance of rain, 9MPH winds) but is only a QB2.

Dolphins LCB Vontae Davis was victimized on two of Vince Young’s Week 15 TDs and numerous other big plays. His confidence is surely shaken, so look for Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson to pick on the rookie early at sunny LandShark Stadium. Overall, the Fins rank 23rd against the pass and give up the league’s third-highest YPA average (8.1). The matchup seemingly makes Kevin Walter a more interesting WR3 than usual, but his lack of big-play ability crushes his upside. He’s a possession receiver/blocker and only Gregg Rosenthal’s No. 36 WR option this week.

Arian Foster was poised for a big Week 15 early, getting most of the action on Houston’s opening drive and generating 20 yards on his first three touches. However, he was benched for the day after fumbling at the end of an otherwise impressive 13-yard catch, badly burning fantasy owners. What made Foster such an attractive fantasy play last week was his matchup against the Rams. Miami is much better in run defense, making the Texans’ backfield one to avoid. Foster will probably wind up with a bigger workload than Ryan Moats or Chris Brown, but you don’t want to bet on it.

My Pick- Dolphins

Seattle at Green Bay

Weather at Lambeau is set to be mild (28 degrees, 6MPH winds, 30 percent chance of flurries), allowing Green Bay to maintain a pass-first approach if coach Mike McCarthy so chooses. Opting to avoid the Steelers‘ No. 1 run defense last week, the Pack tried a whopping 48 throws against eight runs for Ryan Grant. Rodgers accounted for four all-purpose touchdowns and 405 yards to reassume his ranking as the No. 1 QB in fantasy football. Along with Donald Driver (as a WR2), Jermichael Finley (TE1), and Greg Jennings (WR3), Rodgers is a must-start against Seattle’s No. 29 pass defense.

Most likely, though, Green Bay will be more balanced offensively this week. Grant is a potent late-season runner (4.6 YPC since the halfway point), and Seattle’s run defense pales in comparison to Pittsburgh’s. With three TDs in his last two games and Seahawks SLB Aaron Curry (stinger) out, Grant is a rock-solid RB2. Don’t get cute when analyzing the Packers’ favorable matchup and use No. 3 receiver James Jones. With Finley coming on, Jones has just 36 yards in his last two outings. Jones is also playing with torn ligaments in his hand. The Seahawks don’t defend tight ends well. Finley, now leading the Packers in targets on a weekly basis, is a legit top-three TE play.

Deion Branch gets another start with Nate Burleson (ankle) out, but was nothing short of awful in his Week 15 opportunity. Finishing with just 28 yards, Branch gave poor effort on two of Matt Hasselbeck’s interceptions and couldn’t explode off his surgically repaired knee for deep balls. The 30-year-old may be done. T.J. Houshmandzadeh did capitalize on Burleson’s absence (7-73), but probably won’t again this week. The Packers figure to shadow Housh with Defensive POY candidate Charles Woodson. Look for something like four catches for 30 yards from Houshmandzadeh.

John Carlson has scored in back-to-back games, but few teams defend tight ends as well as Green Bay. You can do better. Same goes for Matt Hasselbeck, at least in standard (one-QB) leagues. Hasselbeck is coming off a four-pick performance, and without Burleson lacks big-play ability in his receiver corps. Julius Jones aggravated his rib injury in the Seahawks’ Week 15 loss. Green Bay boasts the NFC’s top run defense, making the Seattle backfield one to avoid in fantasy title week. Justin Forsett will only be a FLEX option in PPR leagues if Jones misses the game. Julius is expected to play.

My Pick —Packers

Carolina at NY Giants

Matt Moore’s rapport with Steve Smith is real. The duo has hooked up on four bombs of 40-plus yards in the last three games, including 42 and 45-yard explosions last Sunday night against a Vikings defense built to limit big plays. Smith is a high-upside WR2 as he takes on a Giants secondary that is routinely serving up huge holes deep downfield. New York will also be without top CBs Corey Webster (knee) and Aaron Ross (hamstring). Moore has starting-caliber tools in the long run, though he’s not a safe two-QB league bet yet. The Giants’ pass rush finally came alive in Week 15 at Washington, and Moore is on this week’s injury report with a mysterious “shoulder” issue.

Carolina’s backfield presents possibly the biggest injury situation of fantasy championship week. In Week 15, DeAngelo Williams aggravated the ankle sprain that’s nagged him for much of the season’s second half. He didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday and will be a game-time decision. D-Will’s talent makes him an every-week RB1 when he’s active, but we won’t know his status until around noon ET on Sunday. If Williams is inactive, Jonathan Stewart becomes an elite RB2 against a Giants run defense that’s given up the third most rushing touchdowns in the league.

Eli Manning is hot (6:0 TD to INT ratio, 659 combined yards, 10.3 YPA in his last two games), but now squares off with a Panthers pass defense that ranks No. 4 overall and held both Tom Brady and Brett Favre under 225 yards with one total TD in Weeks 14-15. Trust Eli if you believe he’s a stud (Rotoworld doesn’t). Otherwise, feel free to explore other options. At least the Meadowlands forecast (43 degrees, 9MPH winds, 20% chance of precipitation) won’t hurt him. Hakeem Nicks is expected to play, but pulled his hamstring in Week 15 and has dealt with injuries to the same muscle since February. In a tough matchup at less than 100 percent, he’s an extremely risky play.

Mario Manningham will be worth a look if Nicks is a late scratch, but hasn’t had 50 yards since Week 11. Steve Smith remains easily the Giants’ best fantasy receiver. He’s scored and/or posted 70-plus yards in six straight games. Another factor working against Eli: the prospect of New York going run-heavy against Carolina’s terrible rush defense (No. 26 overall, 4.6 YPC allowed). Brandon Jacobs remains a big gamble, despite an on-paper mismatch against an undersized Panthers front seven. Jacobs is being outplayed by Ahmad Bradshaw, who even vultured two first-half touchdowns on the goal line last week. You could argue that Bradshaw is the better fantasy play at this point.

My Pick —Giants

Oakland at Cleveland

A matchup of teams with a combined 8-20 record has large fantasy implications, with Michael Bush and Jerome Harrison coming off huge games. Harrison, in particular, likely has a stranglehold on featured back status in Cleveland. With Derek Anderson forced to start because Brady Quinn went on I.R., we should safely expect another 20-plus touch effort from Harrison against Oakland’s No. 28 rush defense. Sure, Eric Mangini is capable of ridiculous decisions, but he’s treading much more lightly after the Browns hired his new boss. Harrison’s contract is up after the year, and new club president Mike Holmgren needs to determine if he’s consistent enough to potentially be a lead back in 2010.

Anderson, on the other hand, is as good as gone. His $2 million March roster bonus won’t be exercised, and D.A. already lacks the accuracy to be marginally effective in the precision-based West Coast offense Holmgren will install during the offseason. More than 25 pass attempts would be surprising.

t goes without saying that Browns pass catchers aren’t worth using in fantasy title games. Evan Moore and Mohamed Massaquoi combined for 10 yards on two catches last week. Joshua Cribbs returned two kicks 100-plus yards for touchdowns, but saw just four touches on offense.

Michael Bush is far riskier than Harrison because he’s got better talents to fight off for carries. Harrison only has former University of Arizona backup Chris Jennings behind him. Bush will not even be worth consideration if Justin Fargas (knee) is active Sunday, but is a worthwhile FLEX or desperate RB2 if Fargas sits out. Having allowed Darren McFadden to touch the ball no more than 12 times since Week 3, the Raiders’ coaching staff clearly sees its 2008 first-round pick as a pace-change back at best. Bush is the team’s best all-around ball-carrying option and was given the backfield reins when Fargas tweaked his knee last week. Bush also got the goal-line work.

Charlie Frye gets his starting QB job back despite a Week 15 concussion. Bruce Gradkowski is still out with two torn MCLs, and coach Tom Cable has given up on JaMarcus Russell. Frye gave no reason to think he’ll salvage any of Oakland’s wide receivers in terms of fantasy value with a pathetic 68 yards and one interception on 17 pass attempts last week. He is not accurate and has no poise. Don’t be surprised to see J.P. Losman early in this game. Zach Miller is expected to return from his second concussion of the season, but caught just two balls for 17 yards a week after his first. Don’t trust Raiders with a fantasy title on the line.

My Pick —Browns

Jacksonville at New England

The Jags played the Colts tough in Week 15, losing by four when Reggie Wayne exploded down the sideline for a 65-yard score and Reggie Nelson alligator-armed the would-be tackle. The same pass defense that served up 300-plus yards and four TDs to Peyton Manning has been a cure for struggling QBs all year (e.g. Kurt Warner and Matt Schaub after slow starts, Matt Hasselbeck’s four-touchdown game). A 100 percent chance of rain at Foxboro may assist Patriots wideouts as the Jags’ corners struggle to backpedal. Tom Brady is setup for his first big game in three weeks, and Randy Moss and Wes Welker are elite plays against the league’s No. 27 pass defense.

Laurence Maroney maintained his grip on the Patriots’ featured back job in Week 15, seeing 23 touches to Sammy Morris’ five and Kevin Faulk’s two. New England’s run-first game plan worked perfectly against Buffalo’s No. 32 run defense. A more pass-heavy approach is likely this week, however, because Bill Belichick is one of the best at exploiting his opponent’s weakness. The Jags are much stronger against the run (only 3.9 YPC allowed, ranked No. 12 overall) than the throw. Fred Taylor’s return from ankle surgery also makes Maroney a riskier play than usual.

NFL touchdowns leader Maurice Jones-Drew found the end zone twice again last week while confirming that he is not slowing down at the tail end of his first season as Jacksonville’s every-down back. He racked up 140 total yards against Indianapolis and showed plenty of burst on inside runs. New England is not tough in run defense, serving up 4.4 yards per carry and ranking 15th overall. He’s a top-three RB start. Torry Holt still hasn’t scored a touchdown in a Jaguars uniform and managed just 38 yards against the Colts. He’s started every game this season, but is the No. 57 overall fantasy receiver.

The Pats appear to have worked out their pass-defense issues, supplemented by improved pass rush. In back-to-back wins, New England has combined for eight sacks while allowing an average of 187 passing yards and two touchdowns. With just 13 TDs in 14 games, David Garrard is only a two-QB league asset. Mike Sims-Walker is off the injury report and returning from a six-catch, 64-yard, one-touchdown game (his best in a month). When 100 percent, MSW is an every-week WR2, even if his quarterback is likely to struggle. He’s always a good bet for 8-12 targets.

My Pick —Patriots

Buffalo at Atlanta

Trent Edwards (ankle) is on I.R. and Ryan Fitzpatrick (ankle) is questionable at best. Next up is Brian Brohm, who has never appeared in an NFL game, lost confidence in Green Bay after plummeting to No. 56 overall in the 2008 draft, and will debut as a starter behind an injury-ruined offensive line. Needless to say, he is setup to struggle. Expect a decidedly run-first game plan from Buffalo with Fred Jackson continuing to lead the way. In the last two weeks, Jackson has totaled 234 yards on 42 touches (5.57 average) compared to Marshawn Lynch’s 119 yards on 23 touches (5.17). Jackson is a quality RB2, especially in PPR leagues, against Atlanta’s No. 20 run defense.

Lynch had just eight carries last week and no catches. He isn’t a fantasy option. Terrell Owens and Lee Evans both have favorable on-paper matchups indoors at the Georgia Dome against a leaky Falcons pass defense, but there’s no way to know if Brohm will be able to get them the football. With a ceiling of something like 25 pass attempts, Brohm isn’t remotely a two-QB league option. Owens and Evans would both be extremely dangerous WR3 plays, and are pretty safely hands-off in fantasy title week. Brohm has been on Buffalo’s active roster for just over a month.

Ranked third overall, the Bills’ stingy secondary has not allowed an opposing QB to top 224 yards since Week 8 (Matt Schaub). More amazingly, they have not given up more than one passing TD in a game since Byron Leftwich had three against the Bills in Week 2. The loss of S Jairus Byrd (groin) would seemingly hurt, but he wasn’t even in the starting lineup. Matt Ryan, coming off an uninspiring, 152-yard return in Week 15, is not a good bet this week in standard leagues. Neither is Michael Jenkins, who has started every game in 2009 but has just one receiving touchdown.

Coordinator-turned-HC Perry Fewell’s scheme makes Buffalo’s pass defense so tough, but Roddy White has factors working in his favor. The Bills placed top CB Terrence McGee on I.R. this week—along with Byrd—and White’s speed is deadly on the Georgia Dome turf. He’s difficult to sit no matter the matchup. Tony Gonzalez will finish as a top-four fantasy TE for a fourth straight year. He’s a must-start. Michael Turner (high ankle sprain) is almost certainly out again, setting up a favorable matchup for Jason Snelling against Buffalo’s No. 32 run defense. Snelling probably won’t top 70 yards while sharing work with Jerious Norwood, but is a near-lock for a touchdown.

My Pick —Falcons

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Steelers-Ravens in a throw-happy affair? Quite possibly. Both teams’ weaknesses are in pass defense, and both QBs are coming off season-best games. Benefiting from the emergence of deep threat Demetrius Williams, Joe Flacco threw for four touchdowns last week against a Bears defense that ranked in the top eight against the pass. He won’t be hindered by the Heinz Field weather (35 degrees, 0 percent chance of snow, 10MPH winds), and is expected to get back WRs Mark Clayton and Kelley Washington from injury. Flacco would need more than one big fantasy game in his last eight to be a recommended QB1, but he’s an excellent two-QB league play again.

Pittsburgh ranks 17th against the pass and is playing musical chairs at RCB (Deshea Townsend appears to be the new starter), but still isn’t bad enough for Clayton, Washington, or Williams to be fantasy options. The Ravens’ only receiver/tight end worth using is Derrick Mason, who has 11 grabs for 181 yards and two TDs in his last two outings.Todd Heap’s Week 15 (56 yards, two scores) came out of necessity because Clayton and Washington were inactive. Heap will return to mediocrity against the Steelers. Ray Rice is an every-week play, even against the NFL’s No. 1 run defense. Bad matchups don’t faze Rice; he dropped 155 yards on Pittsburgh in Week 12.

After looking shell shocked in a 201-yard losing effort to lowly Cleveland the Thursday night prior, Roethlisberger rebounded big against an excellent Green Bay pass defense for 503 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. He’s a strong QB1 again, and now faces a Baltimore defense that will be without its top cornerback (Lardarius Webb – torn ACL) and safety (Ed Reed – hip). Santonio Holmes was Big Ben’s go-to guy in the Steelers’ last meeting with Baltimore, racking up 74 yards and a touchdown on six catches while Hines Ward had just 47 yards on three grabs. Ward’s hamstring remains slightly balky, so Holmes is the better fantasy bet of the two.

Heath Miller returns from a season-best 118-yard game to square off with a Ravens defense that covers TEs well and brings enough pressure that he may be forced to help block All-Pro Terrell Suggs rather than run routes. He’s not a safe option.Mike Wallace is another weekly dice roll. He made a terrific game-winning touchdown catch against the Pack, but banged his knee on the play and was limited in practice this week. His role in the game plan is unclear. Rashard Mendenhall lacks big upside in a matchup with the No. 7 run defense, but is benefiting from increased usage in the passing game. He also had 117 total yards at Baltimore in Week 12.

My Pick —Ravens

4:05PM ET Games

St. Louis at Arizona

Many fantasy owners stockpiled Cardinals players in anticipation of this title week matchup. It should pay dividends. Conditions at U. of Phoenix Stadium are expected to be ideal (58 degrees, 0 percent chance of rain, 3MPH winds), and the Cards’ offense is coming off a 31-point effort. With Rams top pass rusher Leonard Little (knee) unlikely to be active, the Rams’ No. 22 pass defense has little chance of slowing Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin. Warner is safely a top-seven fantasy QB. Gregg Rosenthal smartly has both Fitz and Boldin as top-ten WR1 plays.

Steve Breaston’s usage is way down from last year. He’s averaging just 17.4 yards per game in his last five outings with no touchdowns. Tim Hightower vultured a goal-line score from Chris Wells in Week 15, but there’s no doubt which back is a better bet for big-time numbers. The clear leader in Arizona’s backfield, Beanie has 497 total yards and five TDs since Week 9 compared to Hightower’s 304 yards and two touchdowns. Hightower is no more than a weak FLEX option in PPR leagues at this point, while Wells is a high-upside RB2 against St. Louis’ No. 27 run defense.

The Rams, choosing between rookie Keith Null and Kyle Boller, still haven’t named a starting quarterback for Week 16. We won’t know which player will get the nod until Sunday afternoon. Either way, Donnie Avery, rookie Brandon Gibson, Danny Amendola, and Randy McMichael are safe to bench. None of the above has topped 48 yards in the last month, and they’ve combined for just three touchdowns during that span. The Rams are utterly incapable of moving the football through the air, even in a matchup with a Cardinals defense that ranks 24th against the pass.

Steven Jackson (back) is “questionable” on the injury report again, but is fully expected to start his 15th game of the year. The Cards have allowed 160-plus rushing yards in three of their last four games, while also serving up a rushing touchdown per week over the last month. S-Jax dropped 116 yards and a score on Arizona in their last meeting. Cautious owners should prepare with late-game options in case Jackson is a surprise inactive, but he’s a must-start if he plays (likely).

My Pick —Cardinals

Detroit at San Francisco

Searching for a high-upside quarterback because you fear Peyton Manning may only last a half against the Jets? Try Alex Smith. The Lions rank 32nd against the pass, have given up the most passing touchdowns in the league (30), and have ruled out top CB Phillip Buchanon (shoulder). The Candlestick weather is also working in Smith’s favor, with mid-50 degree temps, a 10 percent chance of rain, and 5MPH winds in the forecast. Smith is a top-12 QB1, while Michael Crabtree is a borderline WR2 and No. 2 overall fantasy TE Vernon Davis remains a obvious every-week play.

With at least six catches in three of his last four games and a growing role in San Francisco’s red-zone offense, Josh Morgan qualifies as a solid WR3. He also drew praise this week from Niners playcaller Jimmy Raye, who talked up Morgan’s “burst, power, and speed.” The Lions amazingly surrendered eight combined rushing touchdowns to Baltimore and Arizona in Weeks 14-15. They have also allowed an opposing running back to go for at least 110 yards in each of their last three games. You won’t find a more desirable RB1 play than Frank Gore in fantasy championship week.

Drew Stanton won’t get Detroit its third win of 2009, but is a superior option to Daunte Culpepper if only because the third-year QB creates on the move and is aggressive downfield. Stanton offers a better chance of getting the ball to Calvin Johnson in the vertical game and making plays when the pocket collapses. At 6′5″/235, there aren’t many NFL defensive backs that Johnson isn’t able to box out on broken plays. Calvin is a risky WR2 whenever Matthew Stafford isn’t starting, but his outlook improved when coach Jim Schwartz gave Stanton the nod over Culpepper this week.

Maurice Morris’ 161-total yard effort in Week 15 was the best of his career. At age 30, however, it’s probably not a sign of things to come. Now facing San Francisco’s No. 5 rush defense, Morris is more likely to post something like 50 yards on 17 carries than build on the performance. It’s also worth noting that Morris was removed in favor of fullback Jerome Felton in three short-yardage situations. Morris is no lock for goal-line carries if Detroit moves into scoring position.

My Pick —49ers

Denver at Philadelphia

Donovan McNabb has a difficult matchup against Denver’s No. 3 pass defense, but the Broncos lack secondary depth stop Philadelphia’s bounteous, now-healthy receiver corps. Able to trot out DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, Kevin Curtis, and Reggie Brown in a five-wide set, the Birds possess dangerous means to spread a defense out. Nickel CB Ty Law (hamstring) is a game-day decision and second-rounder Alphonso Smith has been an early bust, so Denver may be forced to use 175-pound undrafted FA Tony Carter as its top sub-package corner. With plus conditions in the forecast (45 degrees, 7MPH winds, 0 percent chance of rain), don’t bench McNabb.

D-Jax is the only Eagles wideout that can be used confidently. The rest will share snaps and limit each other’s upsides.Same goes for the backfield as it gets back Brian Westbrook (concussion). We don’t know who will start or get goal-line carries. Both LeSean McCoy and Leonard Weaver have worked in scoring situations of late, but Weaver may do more lead blocking with Westbrook available to pair with McCoy. We just don’t know who will get the football when. Brent Celek is the No. 5 overall fantasy tight end and no longer on the injury report. He’s an every-week starter.

It was always in him at 6′4″/230, but Brandon Marshall’s No. 1 improvement under Josh McDaniels has come in the red zone. His 10 TDs are easily a career high. McDaniels has also used Marshall in the “Randy Moss role” more lately—giving him increased jump-ball and deep-route chances. Playing often in the slot, Marshall is essentially McDaniels’ “new Wes Welker” too. It’s hard to argue that there’s a more complete receiver in the league, and Marshall may pick up a few extra targets with Eddie Royal (neck) ruled out for Sunday. Marshall is a top-seven fantasy wideout.

Kyle Orton is a mediocre QB2 against an Eagles pass defense that allows the fifth fewest yards per throw in the league, ranks third in interceptions, and is fourth in sacks. Correll Buckhalter’s (ankle) deals a sizable blow to Knowshon Moreno’s value. Moreno, coming off a disappointing 42-rush yard game against Oakland in which he struggled in short yardage for a second straight week, is a poor play vs. Philly’s top-nine run defense. The Eagles are susceptible to tight ends, but Tony Scheffler still isn’t worth a fantasy title week play. Scheffler hasn’t topped 53 receiving yards since Week 6.

My Pick —Eagles

NY Jets at Indianapolis

Investing in Colts skill players during fantasy title week will be extremely risky because we have no idea how long they’ll play. In his Goal Line Stand column, Gregg Rosenthal made a strong case for benching Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai, and Dallas Clark. Pierre Garcon (hand) is already ruled out. While Manning & Co. will start, they may only last a quarter or two against New York’s No. 1 pass defense. The Colts’ backups are still hands-off because fifth-round rookie Curtis Painter is Manning’s backup. Obviously, the downgrade is significant. Only Austin Collie is worth a WR3 look. Tom Santi, Jacob Tamme, and Hank Baskett aren’t options.

Addai is probable and will start but is on the injury report with a “knee” problem, indicating that he’ll be among the Colts resting if coach Jim Caldwell opts for that approach. Mike Hart, rookie Donald Brown, and unsung third-stringer Chad Simpson are candidates for carries in reserve. Brown is coming off a chest injury and the most explosive runner. The Colts may want to “get him going” before the playoffs with something like 10-12 touches, but this isn’t a situation you want to bet on. The Jets aren’t resting their starters, and are a top-ten team against the run.

Likewise, the Jets will benefit if key Colts Kelvin Hayden, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, and Gary Brackett rest. Impressive rookie CB Jerraud Powers (hamstring) definitely won’t play. Braylon Edwards separated at will against Atlanta last week, going for 105 yards and a TD. Consider him a borderline WR2 and Jerricho Cotchery a WR3 indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mark Sanchez is still a low-end QB2 with three passing scores in his last five games. He can get the ball to Edwards and Cotchery, but isn’t playing well enough to use, even against backups.

Look for ultra-consistent Thomas Jones to rebound from his disappointing 52-yard Week 15. The Falcons loaded the box to stop the run and were successful. The Colts, however, figure to stay in mostly base sets when their backups go in. The Jets still have an outside shot at the playoffs and will ride their most reliable player in a game they should be able to dominate for the final two quarters. Dustin Keller still isn’t an option because his role in playcaller Brian Schottenheimer’s offense is seemingly in decline. He has just five catches combined in his last three efforts.

My Pick —Colts

Sunday Night Football

Dallas at Washington

The Redskins’ offensive line was mostly to blame, but Jason Campbell’s hot Week 12-14 run was proven a fluke last Monday night against the Giants. Hit relentlessly, sacked five times, and injuring his throwing shoulder in the 45-12 blowout, Campbell was held under 200 yards for the first time since Week 10 and intercepted off twice. The Cowboys executed a similar demolition of Drew Brees in Week 15 and have brought more pressure than the Giants all season. There’s not much reason for hope that Campbell will resume playing well, or that Santana Moss will break out of his near season-long funk. Moss hasn’t had 68 receiving yards since Week 7.

Moss will be easy to slow with a safety over the top because the Skins’ Quinton Ganther-led run game is putrid and unexplosive Malcolm Kelly will replace Devin Thomas (out, ankle) at flanker. Kelly hasn’t shown the ability to separate at this level. Ganther has lucked out with three one-yard touchdown runs in the last two games, but lacks speed to get outside and now goes against Dallas’ No. 6 overall run defense. He’s not a fantasy option. Fred Davis is the only recommended Redskin this week. He is crisp getting off the line of scrimmage and dominates in the red zone.

FedEx Field’s forecast (40 degrees, 10percent chance of rain, 4MPH winds) is favorable, helping Tony Romo. The Skins’ secondary has been highly susceptible to big plays of late, and only five teams in the NFL have more 20-plus yard completions than Dallas. Along with Miles Austin (suddenly a top-eight receiver in the game), Romo is a must-start. The Skins routinely hold tight ends in check, however, so Jason Witten is a low-upside play on paper. Since back-to-back 100-yard outbursts in Weeks 12-13, he hasn’t topped 50. Witten also still has just one touchdown on the season.

Roy Williams was an afterthought in last week’s crucial win at New Orleans, showing what Dallas playcaller Jason Garrett thinks of him. Clearly, Austin is going to dominate targets. Williams isn’t nearly reliable enough for fantasy use this week. Marion Barber showed explosive power and his trademark bounce en route to two touchdowns in Week 15. The Skins are considering not starting DT Albert Haynesworth, which makes Barber a slightly more intriguing RB2. He’s in a committee with Felix Jones and probably not going to top 100 yards, but is always a solid bet to score.

My Pick —Cowboys

Monday Night Football

Minnesota at Chicago

The Bears’ “No. 7″ ranked pass defense is a Jekyll and Hyde unit, and may be forced to start two new safeties with Al Afalava and Kevin Payne injured. But Brett Favre is still not a recommended play in standard leagues because his typical late-season, cold weather-related swoon may be in effect. With the left side of his offensive line collapsing, Favre has a 4:4 TD to INT ratio in his last three games while averaging 6.77 yards per attempt. His YPA for the season is 7.8. Not helping matters is a Soldier Field forecast calling for near-20MPH winds and sub-30 degree temperatures.

NFC receiving yards leader Sidney Rice still can’t be benched. He has at least 69 yards and/or a touchdown in six straight weeks and projects to benefit from Chicago’s musical chairs at safety. Percy Harvin is also a quality WR3. The Bears lack speed in the back end to contain him, and Minnesota may focus on short passes to Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe to counteract the weather. Harvin is off the injury report. Adrian Peterson will undoubtedly remain the focal point of Brad Childress’ game plan, however. The Bears surrender 4.4 YPC and rank 25th in run defense.

Presumably frustrated with Ron Turner’s playcalling, Jay Cutler appears to have packed it in for ‘09. So bad he had to be benched with over 7:00 left last week, Cutler generated 94 yards on 27 throws and chucked three more picks to pad his league lead against an Ed-Reed less Baltimore secondary. He’s tanking, and bringing the Bears’ pass catchers with him. Case in point: Devin Aromashodu led Chicago with ten targets against the Ravens. He finished with 10 yards on two connections. Leave Devin Hester, Greg Olsen, Aromashodu, and Johnny Knox benched.

Now being outproduced on a per-play basis by undrafted backup Khalil Bell, Matt Forte remains a highly undesirable option against a Vikings run defense that ranks No. 4 in the league and has yielded the fewest touchdowns in the NFC. Forte never did break out of his “slow start” and has just three games of 70-plus rushing yards all season. They’ve come against the Rams, Browns, and Lions. At least he gets to face Detroit one more time (in Week 17) before season’s end.

My Pick —Vikings

PPick Summary

San Diego at Tennessee: My Pick—Chargers

Buffalo at Atlanta: My Pick—Falcons

Kansas City at Cincinnati: My Pick—Bengals

Oakland at Cleveland: My Pick—Browns

Seattle at Green Bay:  My Pick—Packers

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: My Pick—Ravens

Houston at Miami: My Pick—Dolphins

Jacksonville at New England: My Pick—Patriots

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: My Pick—Saints

Carolina at NY Giants: My Pick— Giants

Detroit at San Francisco: My Pick—49ers

St. Louis at Arizona: My Pick—Cardinals

NY Jets at Indianapolis: My Pick—Colts

Denver at Philadelphia: My Pick—Eagles

Dallas at Washington: My Pick—Cowboys

Minnesota at Chicago: My Pick—Vikings

Read more Baltimore Ravens news on BleacherReport.com

No, Rodgers is proving himself on the football field, showing why he deserves to counted as an elite-level quarterback and perennial MVP contender.

He is running around, but not like a chicken with his head cut off like Favre used to, hoping he could make something out of nothing. Rodgers has the most rushing yards of any quarterback in the league and that includes Vince Young, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, and quarterbacks whose mobility tend to get more publicity.

In fact, Rodgers has just 34 fewer rushing yards than Reggie Bush, while even sporting a higher yard per carry average than the former USC phenom (who, to be fair has been an unmitigated disaster the past two seasons).

Every week, you hear defensive coordinators saying they want to keep him in the pocket because when he rolls, he is incredibly dangerous. That’s because few quarterbacks in the league possess the kind of accuracy Aaron has, particularly moving to his right.

But give him time in the pocket, and he will eat you alive.

These are things we knew about Aaron Rodgers. We’d seen glimpses in the game against the Cowboys when he was filling in for Favre two years ago. We saw it last year when he had one of the greatest seasons in history for a first-year starter.

What we didn’t see was the comfort in the offense, the leadership in the huddle, or the ability to finish games.

I will be the first to say that the late game issues from last year do not fall solely on the right shoulder of Rodgers. The defense failed to come up with stops on a consistent basis and that really obfuscated the fact that Rodgers was solid late in games.

But good or bad, the quarterback gets more blame than he deserves for losing often more credit than he deserves for winning. If Aaron Rodgers wants to be known for his winning and not his gaudy stats, he needs to start doing more of the former.   

Poor play-calling has handcuffed Rodgers for almost two seasons now, but what we saw in Pittsburgh should give you hope.

Head Coach Mike McCarthy took the reigns off, letting Rodgers do more than just tweak plays. Making adjustments, reading defenses, and getting out of bad plays into good ones is what players like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning elite-level quarterbacks.

It’s what separates young quarterbacks from experienced ones.

Rodgers responded with one his best games in a Packer uniform throwing for 383 yards, three scores and rushing for another. Had the Packer receivers been able to catch the ball, it would have been an even more impressive showing (and the Packers likely would have won the game).

Down 10, the Packers scored 22 points in the fourth, only to have the defense snatch a loss from the jaws of victory. Rodgers engineered key drives when the team had to have them, against a team who had to have the game.

The Packers succumbed to the same bugaboo from last year, unable to get a crucial stop. That is ultimately what will determine when this defense can truly count itself among the elite.

But you can’t blame Aaron Rodgers for that.

He was out of rhythm in the first half, receivers were dropping the ball, and the running game was ineffective. He could have folded or he could have pressed. But he did neither, preferring to stay the course and continue to pump the ball on a rope to his receivers assuming at some point they’d make a play.

Eventually guys like Jermichael Finley stepped up. The offense made enough plays to win the game.

You score 36 on the road in December, you expect to win.

It’s tough to score moral victories when you give away a game that’d have all but assured your entrance to the playoffs, against the defending champs. Aaron Rodgers would never accept a moral victory, and that competitiveness and fire are part of what make him great.

The more he’s asked to do, the more he’s showing he can do.

Against a pulverizing pass-rush, in a harsh environment, playing a team fighting for it’s lives, Aaron Rodgers came up with the plays he needed to have. I mentioned last week “competitive greatness is being at your best when your best is needed.” Aaron Rodgers is slowly showing he can be great.

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(QBER is short for Quarterback Efficiency Rating, a more comprehensive, easily understood rating system that I devised to place the emphasis where it belongs—the ability of a quarterback to advance the ball, avoid negative plays, and score touchdowns in comparison to his peers. A rating of 100.0 is the league average.)

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/256842-brees-romo-mcnabb-are-week-1-qber-leaders

Maybe it should come as no surprise that less than 4 percentage points separate Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre and Philip Rivers in the QBER race this late in the season.

Manning, Brees, Rodgers and Favre have been at or near the top since Week One, and no quarterback has been more efficient than Rivers in recent weeks.

The gap between the top-ranked Manning and runner-up Brees is closer than ever—fourth-tenths of 1 percent—which also follows a familiar pattern. In the first 15 weeks, Brees ranked No. 1 on five occasions, while Manning set the pace six times. Favre (three weeks) and Matt Hasselbeck (one) are the only others to rank first overall. 

Manning is a distant fifth in the NFL passer ratings, primarily because they do not take into account sack, fumble and interception yardage. Thus far, he lost only 69 yards in those categories, one of the lowest totals in the league.

The QBER leaders through Week 15 of the regular season:

1. Peyton Manning 135.7

2. Drew Brees 135.3

3. Philip Rivers 135.0

4. Aaron Rodgers 133.9

5. Brett Favre 131.8

6. Donovan McNabb 128.0

7. Tony Romo 125.3

8. Eli Manning 121.0

9. Matt Schaub 120.2

10. Tom Brady 118.2

11. Ben Roethlisberger 114.2

12. Joe Flacco 112.6

13. Kyle Orton 111.6

14. Carson Palmer 107.3

15. Kurt Warner 106.6

16. Matt Ryan 103.0

17. Alex Smith 97.9

18. David Garrard 95.2

19. Matt Hasselbeck 91.0

20. Jason Campbell 90.7

21. Matt Cassel 85.9

22. Chad Henne 82.3

23. Brady Quinn 81.9

24. Jay Cutler 81.5

25. Marc Bulger 79.4

26. Josh Freeman 70.4

27. Matthew Stafford 67.4

28. Mark Sanchez 63.9

29. JaMarcus Russell 54.0

30. Jake Delhomme 46.4

A few observations:

In December, the priority shifts to the run game, right? Not in the modern NFL it doesn’t. Last week there were more pass attempts (1,143), yards (8,265) and turnovers (45) than in any other this season, further proof that the forward pass is where it’s at these days. 

A 479-yard, three-touchdown, zero-turnover performance vaulted Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger into 11th place, his high point of the season. If not for the league-high 506 yards that he lost on sacks, fumbles and interceptions, Big Ben would be on an even shorter list.    

Carolina Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme is done for the season, and not a moment too soon. The veteran ranked last or next-to-last in QBER every week this season. The culprit was a 21-to-4 turnovers-net touchdowns ratio. In his first three starts, successor Matt Moore totaled four TD pass and two turnovers.   

It has been this kind of season for JaMarcus Russell , the embattled Oakland Raiders signal-caller: When he totaled 34 yards, one touchdown and zero turnovers in 12 drop-backs last week, his QBER improved to 54.0, his best rank in nine weeks.

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The team has been at least 12-0 seven times during Peyton Manning’s career.

Only once have they sealed the deal and won the Super Bowl, the lone title coming in the ‘06-’07 season. This is a fact.

Peyton Manning, regarded as one of, if not the best quarterbacks in the NFL, has led the 2009 squad to comeback after comeback after comeback, nine in total.

With this type of “will to win” and lady luck on their side in some of these comebacks, it’s hard to say anything is working against the Colts‘ pursuit of a perfect season. If they were to continue winning, they would (with a victory in the Super Bowl) be the only team in NFL history to complete a perfect season of 19-0.

The closest any team has come to perfection were the New England Patriots in the 2007-08 season. Not only did Tom Brady have the best season of his career, his new teammate Randy Moss did as well, breaking Jerry Rice’s single-season record of 21 receiving touchdowns with 22 scores of his own.

It took two miracles on one play by the Giants to upend New England’s perfect season: an escape of a sack by Eli Manning, and as true of a hail mary as ever, to David Tyree, who had more tackles than catches during the regular season. Tyree’s catch continued the drive, with a finishing blow from Manning to Plaxico Burress in the end zone to take the lead and the W.

Not that you needed a history lesson, but for anyone watching that game, perfection seemed as impossible as finding “the meaning of life.” However, perfection is possible. Just ask the 1972 Dolphins, who completed the only undefeated season (14-0) in history.

For the Colts, and, for any team pursuing a perfect season, the toughest call is one that is hotly debated. Sit ‘em or start ‘em. At what point do you decide perfection is nice, but a Super Bowl is more important? The players from the undefeated regular season New England squad would all tell you they’d rather have a ring and be 13-3 instead of being 18-1.

What history has taught us is that perfection (post-1972) will take the exact combination of rest and drive. Rest your defense, and they will be fresh in the later parts of the postseason. Rest your defense, and risk losing a close game. Play your starters, and risk injury.

Push all your chips on black, Indy. A perfect season, and the Super Bowl ring to go with it, would make them the greatest team of the 2000s.

If for no reason other than the fact that the Colts will be back in the playoffs for years to come, regardless of 2009-10s outcome, do it for your team. No team in NFL history can say they ran the table in a 19-game season, and that would look nice on the resume of rookie head coach Jim Caldwell.

The transition from Tony Dungy to Caldwell has been flawless.

This Caldwell-led team is a success, because of the never-say-die swagger it has. Manning has always been a leader, and that wasn’t about to stop with the coaching change, but where the greatest difference has been for the Colts is on the defensive side of the football.

Playing with conviction, making key stops, and executing (dare I say, “perfectly”) will go a long way in the finishing weeks of the regular season, and pay off great dividends for the Colts in the postseason.

The Colts need the perfect season. The Colts need the Super Bowl. Why not accomplish both? With an offense firing on all cylinders all season long, who can stop them? So far, no one.

Perfection is worth the effort. 

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Even the most optimistic Jaguar fan must admit that a victory in Foxborough  would be nothing short of a Christmas miracle. Coming off a heartbreaking loss to Peyton Manning, they now get to travel and face Tom Brady. All that is missing is a season ending game in New Orleans.

You’re a mean one, Mr. Grinch. The greatest weakness of the Jaguars gets to face two of the most prolific passing attacks in the NFL with the playoffs on the line. If the Colts caused you concern, this game should totally horrify you.

The Patriots have two 1,000 yard receivers in Randy Moss and Wes Welker along with an efficient pass catching back in Kevin Faulk. Their offensive line has given up 16 sacks and 64 quarterback hits and get to face the worst pass rush in the league. Nothing implies the Jaguars can get to Brady with any consistency. They haven’t instilled fear in opposing offenses all year, save the final defensive stop in their win over Buffalo, to warrant any belief the pass rush will suddenly appear.

Need more perspective? Digest these.

• Jacksonville ranks 29th in allowing a 66.6 percent completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. Seattle is 30th at 66.5 percent.
• Jacksonville ranks 27th in allowing 3,421 yards passing for the season. San Francisco is next at 3,473 followed by Seattle at 3,492.
• Jacksonville is tied with two other teams in allowing 24 passing touchdowns this season, ranking them 24th.
• New England ranks 8th with a 64.8 percent completion rate.
• New England ranks 4th with 3,926 yards for the year.
• New England is tied with three teams in the 8th slot for passing touchdowns at 24.

What can the Jaguars exploit? Their strength is on the ground and they get to face a defense that has allowed a league low three rushing touchdowns all season. 

Help from Mother Nature? In case you may have forgotten, the 59-0 dismantling of the Titans in week six was executed in a snow storm.

Now is not the time to expect a Derrick Harvey or Reggie Nelson to all of a sudden find that inner play-maker. Nor can we expect Derek Cox, Gerald Alexander and Rashean Mathis to collectively do what only the Darrelle Revis led Jets could do against a Welker-less Pats.

It is difficult to find any clinquant of hope.

That is the same way we all felt back in 2007 when the Jaguars went to face the perfect Patriots. It was a game in which, much like last week’s game against the Colts, the Jaguars rode the wave of David Garrard’s arm. Unfortunately when faced with perfection in both instances the Jaguars made just enough mistakes to fall short of victory.

David rebounded from sub-par games against Pittsburgh (2007) and Miami (2009) to put the team on his shoulders and quiet the nay sayers. When pundits were playing the funeral dirge for a one dimensional running team, number nine answered back.

There is your hope.

New England has given up over 400 yards of total offense four times this year: all loses.

In those same games they gave up over 300 yards through the air. Simply put, you want to beat the Pats you’d better be successful in the passing attack.

And it isn’t even a matter of getting up early. In loses to Indianapolis, Denver and Miami the Patriots couldn’t hold onto fourth quarter leads. This is not the same secondary that thwarted Peyton Manning annually

Surely many of you are questioning whether David can come through. His big game failings are well documented and the road is where we’ve seen him at his worst. But he has been to the north east before and performed above expectations. Remember, Garrard’s weapons against the perfect Patriots were Matt Jones, Dennis Northcut and Reggie Williams.

Maybe this time a wide receiver will make the catch…or Dirk Koetter will call another gem…or possibly the defense will be allowed to make plays rather than sit back and wait for someone else to make a mistake. This franchise has seen miracles before. It is the perfect season for one and the Jaguars are due.

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